Tuesday, December 16, 2008
The new Apple netbook
Christmas is the time of the year where people think about giving. It is also the time of the year where the Apple fans speculate about receiving, in particular on what MacWorld will bring them (it is Jan 5-9).
It is hard to imaging MacWorld without any announcement. Steve Jobs likes a good surprise, just to screw up CES and have everyone in the world think MacWorld is better than CES (with just one company presenting...).
Rumors are plentiful. No Christmas season without them... So, let me join the fray. I have been pretty accurate to predict the recent Apple moves, therefore it is time to go back to missing expectations.
What is the number one issue these days? The economy. People do not have money to spend (or maybe they do, but they feel like they don't). Therefore, they have started to ditch laptops for netbooks (the very small laptops, with a cost around $500).
Steve Jobs said that Apple does not "know how to make a $500 computer that's not a piece of junk". Therefore, you would think they would definitely not announce a netbook.
Still, I think they will. Just to save Jobs' face, it will be $549 ;-)
There is a nice space between the iPhone ($199) and the cheapest MacBook ($999) and it is a sweet spot for a new device, an hybrid between the iPhone and the Mac.
My guess:
- it will be between half of a MacBook and double an iPhone, with wifi and a built-in camera for webcams
- it will have a touchscreen, like the iPhone (no touchpad)
- it will have a keyboard, like the MacBook Air
- it will have a set of default apps on the screen, little widgets like the iPhone. Just add a word processor, a spreadsheet and a presentation tool on top of what I have on the iPhone and I have everything I need.
- it will allow the download of apps from the App Store, no external installations. It will be another closed and controlled environment. Actually, iPhone apps will work natively because the OS will be the same. Developers will just have to adapt them to a new screen - if they want to - or they will run as separate small windows on the screen.
- MobileMe will be pivotal for the syncing of all your data with the rest of your world (your Mac at home ;-)
Wishful thinking. Probably :-) But it was worth a try...
UPDATE: apparently, Steve Jobs is not giving the keynote at MacWorld. That sounds like a "we got nothing new to show" message. If I can bet, they are pushing it out to a new Apple-only (not IDG) event in Spring or they might just skip it and go to Apple Dev Conference in June. Too bad, I wanted a netbook in January ;-)
Posted by Fabrizio Capobianco at 09:40
8 Comments:
Donald C. Kirker said...
I am not sure that I can see Apple doing this. You already have the Air. This would create too many product lines for Apple.
Internally, Apple prides itself with being able to develop amazing products because they do not have too many product lines.
We can already see that Apple TV is suffering a bit (actually, a lot), as is the Mini. I think that a "netbook" would become the bastard child of the iPhone and the Air. The best that I would imagine is an iPhone with a slightly larger screen and price point, or an Air that was smaller. I do not see either happening.
Another potential would be a phone-less iPhone with a slightly larger screen. I can see this being the device that you are imagining, but for the reasons above, I cannot see this happening.
Comment Posted at 01:35
jackr said...
Yes, there is already Air, and if anything would be cannibalized it would be Air, not MacBook. But I could see Apple stretching Air down into this space.
Comment Posted at 10:55
Fabrizio said...
Well, Air is $1,799 and targeted to the high end of the market (road warriors)... The cheapest Macbook is $999, targeted to the low end of the market (students).
If Apple makes a netbook, they have to make sure they do not target the high end of the market but somewhere in the middle/low. If they kill Air, they are crazy. But with a closed environment, Air won't be touched...
fabrizio
Comment Posted at 10:58
Ed Schepis said...
I hope it won't be a Mactini ;-)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=noe3kR8KqJc
Comment Posted at 15:37
Mordy said...
Fabrizio, I normally find your opinions spot-on, but I find your points puzzling on this one. Your price point on the iPhone is too low, and your idea of netbook prices are too high.
Apple's iPhone 3G is NOT $199. That's a heavily subsidized price based on the fact that AT&T is making a boatload of money on service contracts. Without service, the iPhone hardware is rumored to be worth a retail $599/$699. This is already what you would request for netbook pricing, and without any of the additions you mentioned.
Also, $500 is already considered "high end" for netbooks.
I've been following the netbook market, and found the average prices were between $350-$450, with $500+ being more expensive "elite" models (which no one buys because it approaches the price of a full sized laptop).
No, I don't think Apple will ever do this. Apple doesn't cater to the low end market- it never has. The Netbook's very definition is to cater to the low end, and it is embraced by consumers who don't need the latest-and-greatest for their basic computing needs. Apple as we know it, has clearly shown it is not interested in that market.
Meanwhile, while I own a Mac back home, I'm extrememly happy with my $300 Asus EEE PC which casually finds it way from room to room for quick and easy computing.
Comment Posted at 08:22
Andrew Lampitt said...
Yes, maybe an announcement of things to come, for example could be good as an eBook...
Stanza plus combine with bigger iTouch in Fall 2009
http://havemacwillblog.com/2009/01/01/one-million-users-is-stanza-killing-the-kindle/
"Stanza is an electronic book application for the iPod/iPhone available
for free through the Apple App Store. It’s not the only free eBook
application, but it’s the one that is dominating the market, probably
because it wins out on ease of use and capability. And as of 30th
December it has a million users."
http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/12/30/large-form-ipod-touch-to-launch-in-fall-09/
"We’ve got this from three independent sources close to Apple: expect a
large screen iPod touch device to be released in the Fall of ‘09, with
a 7 or 9 inch screen. Prototypes have been seen and handled by one of
our sources, and Apple is talking to OEMs in Asia now about mass
production."
Comment Posted at 09:24
Fabrizio said...
Hi Mordy,
I disagree ;-)
The price of the iPhone IS $199. Maybe not for you and me, but for the consumers out there... it is. There are plenty of studies about it.
If you say that the market for a netbook is around $350 and Apple only caters to the high end... then you are just making my point. Apple will sell a high-end netbook ;-)
Cheers,
fabrizio
Comment Posted at 07:12
Mordy said...
Fabrizio,
Just because the consumer can buy an iPhone for $199 with a contract doesn't make the tech worth $199 by itself.
If that were true, than the iPod Touch, which is a simpler device than the phone should cost less, correct?
So then explain why the 8GB iPod Touch retails at $299, a full $100 MORE than the phone?
Clearly consumers have to acknowledge that a contract costs money, and factor that into the cost of a phone. I remember 3 years ago, someone asked a store salesman why they would pay $350 for an HP iPaq with WM5.0 when T-mobile was selling the HTC Wizard with WM5.0 + phone for $99.
The guy was trying to get a Staples' rep to sell him the ipaq for $99 as a price match. The rep politely explained that he would sell the ipaq for $99, if the buyer agreed to pay $30 a month for 2 years to him personally. ;)
My point is that Apple would never sell something like the iPhone for $199 directly. Therefore, your whole price point is slightly off, IMO.
The iPhone already exists in the market that would be netbooks.
Also, high end netbook = laptop, does it not? I just don't see any of this happening realistically.
Post a Comment