Monday, March 02, 2009
Mobile is still strong, despite the rest
It is hard to be optimistic on anything these days. When you look at your portfolio, read newspapers, watch TV, you are bombarded with negative over negative.
However, in a downturn there are always areas of optimism, sectors that fare much better than the rest. It is just a matter of picking them and ride the wave, while everything around is collapsing.
One of these markets - in the current downturn - is mobile. Just look at the figures below, coming from a recent IDC study.
Granted, it is not 500% year-over-year growth. But it is growth nonetheless. Personally, I would sign up my entire portfolio for those numbers. I am getting used to the -30% to -50% losses...
Why will mobile operator still do well in 2009:
- Voice. In a crisis, people won't give up their cell phone. They will give up their landline, moving everything to their mobile device. And they will talk more, because that is what you do when you have time and you are depressed (the other thing is playing games, which is the other market that won't suffer that much). Voice revenues are going to go up, not down, with zero capex for the mobile operators.
- Data. The trend towards smartphones and data plans is not going to change. People will wait a bit more to switch mobile phone, but the next one is for sure a smartphone. Some might even drop their DSL at home and go for an iPhone or the like, to save money and have everything in one place. Data plans are a great revenue generating tool for mobile operators and they will get more.
Life is good, I just have to stop looking at my portfolio, read news and watch TV ;-)
Posted by Fabrizio Capobianco at 10:03
1 Comments:
Carlo Pecchia said...
Really interesting... I've never considered the "positive" effects of depressed people in these specific sectors (voice and gaming..). Do you have any other suggestion of possible sector of growth?
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