Monday, August 17, 2009
The Apple iPad will be an ebook reader
I have been quite decent at predicting Apple's moves recently. With all this talk about the new tablet/netbook by Apple, I thought it was time for me to jump in and make my predictions.
First of all, I do not think it will be a netbook. I just do not see a reason for it. Steve Jobs has said he does not see how they can build a laptop for $500 that is not a piece of junk. Although I disagree with him (they can build one for sure ;-) I totally understand why Apple won't do it: they are the king of the high-end market in laptops, why would they eat into their own market? It is nonsense.
And it will be boring... The MacBook Air on which I am typing now is a beautiful machine, with a large screen and all I need from a laptop. You shrink it a bit and it loses a good keyboard and the large screen. To save money?? Not a chance.
Ok, so now we know it will be a tablet, a sort of an oversized iPhone Touch, with no keyboard.
When you start thinking about the usage for it, you start discounting anything that has to do with typing. No keyboard, no typing. Or, at least, just minimal typing. It is going to be mostly a read-oriented device.
Ok, what do you do with a read-oriented device?
- not much email, word processing, spreadsheet and so on
- reading something with a browser or an ebook reader
- watching something
- listening to something
- playing games with minimum input
What is wrong with the iPod Touch? It is small enough to put in your pocket, but it is too small for reading a book (although it is doable) or watching a movie with a good screen (although it is doable). It is just too small for those things. And it is not even a phone.
Do I need another DVD player? Hardly. As most people out there, I do own one for my daughter, and I just bought her a second one (region free, of course) because the first one broke. It cost me $79 on Amazon... Yes, I might like having a DVD player with me when I fly alone (I don't have one, I watch movies on my laptop or on my iPhone or on the plane TV) but there is not a good reason for me to jump and buy a new one for $500, even if it can download movies on-the-fly...
Do I own an ebook reader? No.
Do you own an ebook reader? Probably not, it is still a niche.
A niche that is going to explode.
I am not saying the iPad will be just an ebook reader. I am saying it will be sold as an ebook reader, that its main feature will be allowing you to read a book. A good-looking Kindle. But one that doubles as a video player, that you can use to browse the web, play games, listen to music and download apps from the App Store. And do some email when you have to.
This is the mp3 player market all over again. Where there mp3 players before Apple came in? Yes. Any really good? No. Any good sync between them and your PC? Nope. Apple changed everything and that market exploded, with Apple owning 90% of it.
The tip that this was going to be Apple's direction came from a very quiet announcement a few months ago: Amazon licensed its book reader technology for the iPhone. Few people read it, but it was huge news to me. It was the trigger for Apple to access the entire library of Amazon. Expect a book store by Apple, with Amazon being a big supplier (but maybe not the only one).
Now, would I buy an ebook reader? Maybe. I have been thinking about it for a while. I just do not like the Kindle aesthetically and maybe an ebook reader would not be enough for me to do it. But if I can also watch movies on a plane, and I can play a little game with it, and I can use it to read email on the couch, and I can leave it on the kitchen table (must have a holder of some sort) for my wife... maybe I will actually buy one. I do believe it has market potential. A sort of mass market Kindle. Exactly as Apple did in the mp3 world, which was a niche until they moved into it.
A book reader. Think about schools and students and kids. It is not a niche.
I do think it will have a camera for videochats. I believe it will be built on the iPhone OS, vs. a full Mac OS X, because developers have built apps for no-mouse interaction on the iPhone. It will be easy to port them to a bigger screen. Apps built for Mac OS require a mouse: you would have to rewrite them from scratch to be used only with fingers or voice. And the App Store is already there (BTW, I am expecting an App Store for Mac OS software soon as well).
Ok, here you have it. I do believe Steve Jobs will be on stage and deliver a great performance, as usual. The press will go wild. Developers will go wild. A new market will be started.
I have seen it before ;-)
Posted by Fabrizio Capobianco at 15:28
21 Comments:
Alessio said...
Whoaa, you also know the name? iPad?
Cool, and seems correct accordingly to last rumors...
I think your prediction is quite good, a media portable device.
Contents are already there, always-on streaming has been proved to work... seems we are heading for THE anytime-anywhere.
Let's wait and see :)
(I don't expect the iPad for this September though)
Comment Posted at 21:12
Luca Mearelli said...
it's fascinating but I'm not convinced an ebook reader can be effective with a common screen.
Still nothing beats the eInk screens for reading books but those are unfeasible for dynamic content.
Anyhow the iPad being an ebook reader makes just too much sense (as you said history repeats itself...) so maybe we'll have surprises :)
Comment Posted at 02:23
Andrea Trasatti said...
Ciao Fabrizio,
I was thinking something very much on the same line in the last 2-3 days. I have my iPhone always with me, I have a Samsung NC10 and sometimes I bring my Mac from work at home. I realised that I have three stages of use for internet and reading:
- iPhone is check something quick (e-mail update, Twitter, etc)
- netbook is more reading news, write some e-mails
- Mac is for real work or development
There is one key advantage in the iPhone that often stops me from turning on the netbook, it's always on and by the time you unlock it, you're online.
If I could get a tablet that allows me for easy reading, some writing and always available, I'd buy it!
So I agree on most of what you said, I think it will be a lot about watching YouTube videos, about downloading movies from iTunes to watch on an airplane, about browsing and about books. And should be always-on.
I would buy that, now that I realised the netbook is too slow to start :(
And this (unfortunately) will make my life even more connected.
Comment Posted at 02:52
luz said...
I can make it short - I just think you are 100% right.
We'll see on September 9th, apparently.
Comment Posted at 07:03
Alessandro said...
Ciao Fabrizio,
it would be a hit in US colleges!
Alessandro
Comment Posted at 09:06
BillMo said...
Dude, isn't your wife allowed out of the kitchen? She might like to sit on an airplane or on the couch too! :-)
Like the other commenters I agree with you. Apple's in a great position in that they can rely on existing media (music, movies, tv) and app revenue while they wait for ereader content to ramp up.
Consider that Apple loves to make announcements surrounded by partners. Who do you think the iThingy's surprise partners will be? Amazon (yawn)? Newspapers? Magazines? Textbooks? Google? Peachpit? Library of Congress?
Comment Posted at 21:28
Fabrizio said...
Hi BillMo,
no comments on my wife ;-)
I think it will be quite interesting if they come out with newspapers. From the marketing standpoint, they would be the savior of the dying newspapers... Huge.
fabrizio
Comment Posted at 16:26
Eileen O'Neill said...
Ciao Fabrizio,
It's Saturday, 5 Sept 09 and I just heard your interview (a re-run, I just found out) on Radio 24's 2024 with Enrico Pagliarini.
I really enjoyed the interview - so much so that I got online: googled you and subscribed to the 2024 program podcast.
I look forward to reading your "thinking out loud" comments and hope that you post more often...!
Thanks for the info on the Apple iPad. While I love my iMac, I was very disappointed with the iPod Touch and with the iPhone.... My HTC - while not cool, gives me the functions I need. I also don't like the idea of Apple keeping the keys to the gates.... I like the open source approach.
The iPad an ebook reader.... hmmm.... maybe in the States or northern Europe, but do you really think there will be a mass catch on here in Italy? I know the iPod Phone took off and went balistic - but I think that was due to the fact that it was THE fashion and here in Italy we are mobile phone addicts - but an ebook reader in Italy.... I wonder - but it will be interesting to see how Apple and their Italian partners market it! AND if will have large print for we Baby Boomers....
Again thanks for a great interview and an interesting blog.
P.S. I'm not a geek, but I prefer comfortable shoes and clothes, too....
Comment Posted at 08:29
LenZ said...
Ciao Fabrizio,
interesting thoughts, as usual. You may be right, but I wonder about the same thing that Luca already mentioned - it won't be great experience with a regular TFT screen. One thing that sets the eBook readers from Sony or Amazon apart is the amazing E-ink display (and the long battery life that comes with it). It's too bad these displays are so slow when updating...
If Apple managed to create a display with the same quality, but making it useful for interactive applications, now that would be the killer.
If it's just an iPod with a larger screen, I have my doubts...
But then again I'm not an Apple fanboy, either :)
LenZ
Comment Posted at 02:24
Pink Ladybug said...
Just found your blog and enjoyed reading your prediction. But I thought of one more thing… what about the E-Ink? What makes these devices so useable is the E-Ink… your eyes don’t get fatigued and you’ll get a good week or so of battery life. Barnes and Noble’s soon-to-be-released NOOK has two screens, the lower one is color and connects to the web and that device has significantly shorter battery life. That is the only feature that I would miss on an E-Reader. Your thoughts?
Comment Posted at 08:17
Fabrizio said...
Dear Pink Ladybug,
first of all, congratulations on a very cool nickname ;-)
I agree on the e-ink. It is the key for reading. But you need a couple of things to make it really good:
1. that you can read it in the dark
2. that is color and not just B/W
The problem with #1 is that many people read in bed or on a plane. That is where the device is really useful.
#2 is just a plus, but it opens up the world of school books, which are the golden pot
If I might guess, I believe Apple will come up with something that solves #1 and #2, as usual leapfrogging the competition. Otherwise, they will wait until the technology is ready.
fabrizio
Comment Posted at 08:28
Pink Ladybug said...
Yes, I think you are right. I just finished reading an article stating that Barnes and Noble are already announcing that they may not be able to meet the incredible demand for the Nook this holiday season. I’m a reader and as badly as I want an e-reader I just have to wait and see if Apple puts something out soon. The aesthetics of the Kindle doesn’t appeal to me, I like the Nook better… but I just know Apple has something up their sleeve and I don’t want to waste the money now.
Comment Posted at 08:35
Nicola Larosa said...
And, speaking of Apple, this comment might hit the nail on the head: "I’m starting to think that your tablet customer is Apple itself."
However, hopefully such great screen tech will not be an Apple exclusive.
Comment Posted at 08:27
Allan said...
As I am sure you have seen by now, calling the iPad an ebook reader is much like calling the space shuttle a 'vehicle'. While technically true, it is sooooooooo much more.
Comment Posted at 14:55
Fabri said...
Allan, I agree, obviously. I have to say I was not off on many of my predictions, though. And I have read a book on it :-)
fabrizio
Comment Posted at 15:42
iPad Novels said...
Well I have been comparing the iPad and Kindle and I have to say the iPad gets my vote. Great post!
Comment Posted at 16:45
Free IPad said...
Can you tell me from where i can get ebooks in ipad format?
Comment Posted at 01:10
ebooks for iPad said...
I agree for downloading ebooks, newspapers and even comics the ipad is superb. Good article, Thankyou
Comment Posted at 02:25
buy gadget man said...
iPad is going to be cool, after a few upgrades. we'll all have one but not yet, meanwhile I'll stick with my laptop for work and browsing, and my kindle eReader for leisure and beach reading!
Comment Posted at 05:00
ipod said...
thanks for the blog, very interesting information.
Comment Posted at 12:12
Free iPad said...
Will the iPad ebook reader let you set bookmarks, highlights (in color), or add notes to particular pages? That would make it useful for a reference / study guide.
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