Thursday, March 04, 2010
What if the carriers want the network to be crap?
I do not know when and where, but a few days ago I read a note that said "what if Google starts allowing phone calls among Android devices?". Yep, phone calls over IP, completely around the carriers. No voice dollars to the operators. Same as Skype on your PC, but your PC is actually mobile and you can move it close to your ear (try that with an iPad).
What if?
Well, no voice revenues anymore. That might hurt an operator, in particular in the US where the data plans are unlimited. And hurt a lot.
What prevents this scenario to become real?
The network. The bandwidth is not there yet. The network is overloaded. If you try a VOIP call on a mobile device, even with 3G, the quality is horrible. It is like trying Skype on a modem (I did, do not try, it is not good).
Now a thought: what can the carrier do to prevent this scenario? Simple, they can just keep the network as it is today: not-good-enough. They can make it better but still not good enough, because the amount of data load will increase naturally.
Think about it: they have to invest gazillions to improve the network and the only benefit of it might be having Google wipe them out. Does it make sense to you? Would they do it just because the users are asking for it? Can the market push it?
I really hope so. I would hate to see the networks crippled just for carriers to prevent the inevitable.
However, I actually see a good reason for the carriers to prefer the network to be crap.
And that is not a good thing.
Posted by Fabrizio Capobianco at 14:19
6 Comments:
I disagree about the VoIP not being sufficient on 3G. I personally make VoIP calls all the time via 3G using Fring's SIP feature. I just hook up my SIP credentials and voila, VoIP on my N1. I used to do it on the iPhone as well. Skype can be used too via Fring. There are other apps as well.
The rest makes sense though, I mean I really am excited to see what happens in the next couple of years. VoIP is really becoming mainstream in households, personally I've hooked it up for most of my family members and we all make local calls even though they are all in different countries.
Now if we can have it on our mobiles... I just wonder how the carriers are going to monetize it, I think what they'll eventually do is get rid of the unlimited plans (i hope not though).
Comment Posted at 16:53
Alessandro said...
MAybe the reason operator are not providing internet mobile at flat rate is to avoid what id becaming a reality over the fixed network, yoy pay for voice&&data services at a low fix rate decresing the revenew from a SP point of view and in this way reducing the possibility to invest in infrstructure, this is my experience in last 10 years working for SP as technology vendor.
I agree with Fabrizio, if SP will provide quality over internet investing in high bw will be the dead of the SP because they will be in the battle to provide bw at low cost while OTT will provide application for free because their business model is different, they sell advertisement.
SO I agree with the strategy to provide good quality but not enough to allow OTT to provide voice/video and others services with good quality, and at the same time to to take courage providing ICT services other then voice and data.
Comment Posted at 00:28
mario said...
Current HSDPA connections are good enough for Skype (Voice and even video) calls.
The only issue is that today (At least in Italy) the numer of users of that kind of connection is still limited, and I suppose it won't scale up well.
I feel that Google will become itself a mobile provider, and I don't know if that will be good or bad.
They announced they will be a superfast provider and starting from the Nexus One they are facing off mobile operators downsizing their role offering their phone without any restrictions on the contract.
Comment Posted at 01:43
Good points all around. To mitigate the voice revenue loss, carriers are furiously pushing their xDSL, cable, SAT infrastructures. In EMEA, they often tack a VoIP service onto the DSL CPE's as well (we have VoIP phones @ home rather than fixed lines).
carriers are still collecting for the VoIP traffic, it just isn't their "fat minutes on the network" Manna that they enjoyed in the good old "circuit based days"
Comment Posted at 02:37
Don't get this idea. It is possible to filter out items like Voip from a network connection.
Just carriors setup network right and voip will not work unless it to the carriers own provided service.
Google provides the chance for carriors to simplerfy their hardware and provide floating phone numbers. Ie a number than can be used with a mobile and land line even follow person to work.
Who owns the hardware can always use software to control what you can use it for. No reason for carriors not to upgrade.
There are ISP's here that already block VPN P2P and VIOP traffic on normal DSL connections. Ie perfectly doable you have to pay extra to use them.
Comment Posted at 14:43
SIP Trunking said...
The chosen standard among wireless carriers is SIP as of right now. If this momentum continues, VoIP calls from your cell phone (with video) are going to be a reality. I'm sure the wireless carriers will find other ways to continue the revenue stream, however!
Post a Comment