Monday, August 15, 2011
The end of Android as we know it
In my last post, I claimed the race for the mobile OSs was pretty much over. The two winning were iOS and Android, and I felt there was no room for anyone else.
Scratch that: Google just bought Motorola Mobility.
This opens up the race again. It is a fantastic opportunity for Microsoft, and also someone like HP with Palm.
What Google did is the harakiri of the third party OS strategy. The one that made Microsoft what it is in the PC world. They simply acknowledged that the Apple model is better, even if Android was growing like a weed.
Google has just told us that to be successful in mobile you need three things: an OS, a cloud and a mobile device. The whole thing. As long as Apple had OS and device, Google was fine. Now that Apple has iCloud, things are different. Google reacted. The cloud is where they are strong, now they need to catch up on the device.
What about the rest of the pack? What about Samsung and LG? Is there anyone in the world that really believes Android will stay the same, that if you are a device manufacturer you can still use it long term?
Nope, Google is your competitor now. You can't use Android long term. You can't count on the Google cloud anymore. You have to move. You need an OS and a personal cloud play. NOW.
Those who believe Google will keep Android as it is are smoking something funny. There is only one chance: that the move is only and purely about Intellectual Property (I think a big part of it is), and that they will take Motorola HW and sell it to a Chinese manufacturer, keeping just the IPR. I do not buy it. You do not spend $12.5 billion for IPR. That is a bit too much money.
Who benefits from this? Microsoft, Microsoft, Microsoft. I am sure they are calling all device manufacturers and they are saying "I told you so". They will claim they are the only option for a third party OS. And it is not just marketing anymore.
Who else? Nokia. The game is wide open now. They have a window of opportunity. Android is going to slow down dramatically. Nokia can make a comeback. They have the lead on Windows over anyone else. It is their great chance. Plus, if it does not work well, Microsoft is going to buy them to make sure they own the three legs of the stool (they have only OS and cloud, no device. With Nokia, they will be equal to Apple and Google).
Anyone else? Probably HP. They have said Palm is now something you can license. If you do not like Microsoft, they are now a good option. However, they still lack developers, so it is a long shot. In any case, they have two out of three (OS and device), if they can put together a cloud story they could compete with Apple and Google.
Losers? Samsung and LG, big time. They bet on Android and now they are screwed. I can hear them swearing in Korean even here from Lake Como. They can recover quickly. The rest of the pack is even in a worst shape. I would not want to be Sony Ericsson right now...
I think this is neutral for HTC and RIM. HTC has a long bet on Microsoft as well: they can recover. RIM just lost a potential buyer (not that I believed there was a fit) and now they have Google as a direct competitor. However, a slower Android could give them time to breath. They need time and they might just received it as a gift.
In any case, this is huge. I thought Android was the Microsoft of mobile, it was working so well and they just gave it up. They know better than I do (and the IPR situation was really messy) but I have a hard time believing Google will be able to be a great HW company. We'll see, but I have my doubts (a lot).
One thing is sure though: this is the end of Android as we know it. The fastest growing OS in the history of mankind. Open, meant to be the OS of the connected devices world. The backbone of the Internet of Things.
All gone. It is a proprietary OS. The third leg of the cloud+device+OS stool owned by a device manufacturer. Nothing more.
Posted by Fabrizio Capobianco at 07:42
14 Comments:
Maffu said...
I think Google bought the patents, nothing else. They'll sell the hardware business two years down the road, max... Unless they're buying Sprint too, as somebody was saying http://www.forbes.com/sites/chunkamui/2011/08/15/motorola-sprint-googles-att-verizon-and-comcast-killer/?partner=yahootix
Comment Posted at 08:20
Michele said...
"They have said Palm is now something you can license."
You said Microsoft does it and HP would do it but why shouldn't Google keep a licensing option in your opinion? I think they could capitalize on their ability to produce a superior integrated device while earning licensing fees on the side.
Comment Posted at 09:10
The fact is that Android changed a few months ago with all the legal issues (both past and future) and Motorola needed to sell a business that has no operating profit facing large license fees. Android will not be free in the near future - and the economics for OEMs are very difficult to support. Google really had no choice = although MSFT is clearly the big winner.
Comment Posted at 15:44
Well, if Microsoft buys Nokia, it will be the same, will it not? WP7 will be DOA. I do believe that now Microsoft just can't afford to buy Nokia - which might be a good thing.
I disagree about Android, though. It will slow down, for sure, but over time it will catch-up. Google will not close it ( I can bet on it) and over time some of the rest will stick with Android. They will probably build a backup plan (Windows Phone or webOS), but they will not just throw their Android expertise away.
Comment Posted at 22:39
Fabrizio said...
We are talking about Google pulling a Symbian here. Unless they dump the HW business, it is simply not going to work in the long term. And if MSFT will buy Nokia, it will be the same.
Honestly, this market is telling us that third party ODMs will disappear...
fabrizio
Comment Posted at 01:37
Useless Opinion. They didn't bought it because of APPLE's BUSINESS model, they bought it for patents.
Comment Posted at 02:42
staserabrodino said...
Come sempre una analisi quasi spiazzante. Di quelle che dici: "Cavoli, è ovvio! Ma com'è che non ci ho pensato prima?"
Ciao Capo
Comment Posted at 05:53
Kari Mattsson said...
Fabo,
I think also 3rd party ISVs are also in danger.
You know your own difficulties to make as wide support of synced data types for iOS as you currently have for Android and even Symbian.
Android really might close down. There is a real option for that now.
Remember how fast SonyEricsson and Samsung ran out after Nokia toke dominant position on Symbian?
Volume-wise globally trend which will continue is the fragmentation of Android. Have you noticed the amount of Android models lately from China alone? ...and those devices are:
- never 'with Google'
- dirt cheap
- working just fine for people in lower income countries, and others
If Android really fails, we alwas have the black horse, MeeGo :-)
It is so open, that no-one can close it.
It even may be *too* open for many players on the market?
Keep up the good work!
-kari
Comment Posted at 10:15
I'm sorry but the claims that ms is in any possible way a winner here is nothing but ludicrous. I smell a bit of bitterness in this post. Jumping the gun a bit with android being proprietary, don't you think? What exactly has microsoft gained? Nothing at all. Google on the other hand just gobbled up a whole bunch of patents. Google has historically treated they're partners well and looking at Google business model I don't expect third party developers to come off any worse from this deal, on the contrary. This also seems to be the message coming from the manufacturers themselves. HTC welcomed the purchase.
Nokia won't make it. Very few people inside Nokia actually believe in the viability of WP7 as a real competitor. And for a company being tied to Microsoft certainly hasn't worked out well in the past.
The train of thought in the blog post seems twisted at best.
Comment Posted at 10:54
Sergio Montoro said...
I also thought that the mobile OS war had only two players left: iOS and Android. But look at the figures of RIM share among youngsters.
tinyurl.com/iOSvsRIMShare
Comment Posted at 00:19
Fabrizio,
I could not agree with you more. August 15th will be an annual holiday at MS HQ going forward!
Needless to say MS are the BIG winner here (besides MOT senior team that get a nice payoff on their outstanding options).
Regarding the "supportive" statements from other HW manufacturers - what else could they do? Upset their main supplier by not appearing supportive? Of course not - but in the back room the contingency plans are being finalized...
I sense many people are negative on WP7, go ahead and try it. It's an excellent OS with the key enterprise features (Outlook support etc) very well done. My guess is that WP7 together with Nokia HW (and others) will make a real dent in RIM's market share.
Comment Posted at 07:04
Andy C. said...
I would like to be a fly on the wall of boardrooms at LG, Samsung & friends.
Yuhu, what's the mood over there ? How do you like the new kid on the block ?
A friendly and 'generous' supplier is now a powerful competitor...
I'd lose sleep over it...
Andy C. - http://www.gaia-matrix.com
Comment Posted at 07:20
Georgi Kodinov said...
Great post ! I didn't looked at this from the MS angle.
Comment Posted at 07:30
loxs said...
No one can forecast what will work, and what will not. If you (or I for that matter) were such a big expert, you'd be right in there, one of the big sharks, lurking...
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