Wednesday, October 05, 2011
Apple cannot build a better iPhone
I admit it: I was wrong. A few days ago I wrote:
First of all, there will be an iPhone 5. I know some of you are thinking "doh", but there are rumors that Apple will actually launch an iPhone 4s instead. I do not think so. There is too much competition, they have to move the number up, whatever they ship. They just cannot give the world the impression that the iPhone platform is not moving, that Apple is not innovating, that Steve Jobs is gone and therefore the company is screwed. They have to ship an iPhone 5, even if it is just the iPhone 4 in pink.To be fair, I was right on the reaction to the lack of an iPhone with a new number: the analysts, the media, everyone was disappointed. The stock tanked after the event. Everyone is convinced this is a window of opportunity for Nokia (I bet there was a lot of alcohol flowing in Finland last night, knowing the Finns), RIM (stock is up 12% today...), Samsung and the like.
Now, I have been thinking about the "why" since yesterday. Why did they not ship an iPhone 5, improving on the case and the form factor? Why? Why?
They did open a window for the competition, there is no doubt about it. Whatever is inside the device does not change it (Siri being the coolest thing after ice cream). They could have killed Windows Mobile 7. They could have finished BlackBerry. They could have challenged Android for real, stopping their growth (and not just trying to play the price game with the 3GS still alive).
Instead, they did not do it. But Tim Cook is no dumb... Sure, having the same case will make logistics better, probably even increase margins. Now why?
The easiest answer is: arrogance. Hubris is what kills companies, and Netflix is giving us a good example of it. Apple maybe thought they were so ahead of the competition, that the world loves them so much that they could have the luxury of slowing down. Something like: "you know, we kept the iPhone 4 in the market for 18 months and it is the best selling device, another year would not make a difference: we are the best and we win anyway".
I just do not buy it. You finally become CEO of the coolest company on earth and - at your first event - you disappoint? You make your stock go down? You make everyone say "aahh, when Steve Jobs was here..." or "this looks like Microsoft when Bill Gates left"??
No, no, no. I do not buy it.
I have a different theory: they just could not make it. They looked around at ideas, like the teardrop design. But it did not make any sense in landscape mode. They looked around for new materials, but they just could not find anything better than what they had built.
Simple said: the iPhone 4 is the best smartphone factor there is. You cannot make it better. It is the best shape, it has the perfect dimensions to hold it in your hand, the buttons are where they are supposed to be. You cannot improve it.
I believe we have reached the top of the form factor in smartphones. Apple is telling us this is the case. Period.
The game now is inside. It is the software, and the stuff around it to make it faster. It is the cloud. It is the personal assistant and the voice recognition. The outside is not going to change, all smartphones will look alike. Same for the tablet world. Forget the outside, it really does not matter anymore. Apple knows it, and they are delivering on the inside and the cloud.
It is that simple.
The form factor is dead. It is not a factor anymore.
Posted by Fabrizio Capobianco at 10:17
7 Comments:
nik said...
hmmm.. I kinda like your theory, but another rumour was a slightly larger screen. They could have done that; it would have been an improvement in my opinion.
Comment Posted at 14:51
Why would alcohol flow in Finland? Nobody buys nokia over here anymore, and the windows pos certainly wont change that. I don't understand your continued overblown optimism for nokia. Not only don't they have the software or the hardware to compete, they don't have the control over they're product anymore and have lost they're most skilled people long ago. The board of directors are a joke. It is that simple.
Comment Posted at 04:15
Fabrizio said...
Wow, what did Nokia did to you? :-)
Maybe I am just romantic. I grew up in Europe, where Nokia was the dominant force. The idea of them disappearing is something I cannot conceive. And I know a lot of skilled people still working for them.
I am probably a Nokia cheerleader.
Comment Posted at 07:47
How didn't nokia screw just about everybody. Nokia is disappearing fast. Two years ago it had a lot of potential to make great products, but that was pointlessly squandered. I never worked there, but I do know a lot of talented people who used to work there. Some had the good sense to leave as the changes were rumored. The exodus picked up pace fast after that and no one really wants to work there anymore, at least here in Finland. It is truly astonishing how they messed things up so fast, becoming one of the most favorite places to work at, to the most loathed one. Trashing the company value seemingly purposefully simultaneously. This is not the same company it was a a few years ago. Good riddance.
Comment Posted at 13:45
the way I see it, as soon as phones come out with a solar panel on it with high charge batteries that last at LEAST 50x longer then the manufacturers would think to themselves "we made a monster, and it's all our fault"
I hate apple because they just are too closed source, they only share when it benefits them, they don't even want you to know how to unhook the backing of your iProne so that you can cheaply change the battery.
they make you pay out the nose for cheap solutions that can be done within a budget that Android has... I liked Steve Jobs, he was a fantastic guy they just don't need a Jobs clone, they need a visionary that's similar to Jobs but not the same
and the company won't disappear, no matter how horrible a company is the old saying goes, PRESS IS PRESS it would be great if it was good but we can do with bad press, besides... your name is in the paper and you didn't even have to pay for it ;)
Comment Posted at 20:43
Nokia was good, it was starting to go into Open Source, making their phones reliable and good then all of a sudden... Windowz? where'd that come from did they just see a dollar sign and agreed or something?
Nokia WAS good until they chose to go with Gates of Hell
they should have chosen Android if they couldn't support Maemo anymore.
Comment Posted at 20:46
Mordy G. said...
Problem is that this may be the best design for the greatest common denominator.
But different folks have different needs, some want smaller more pocketable devices, some want larger displays, some would prefer physical keyboards, and some would not.
Yes, if you had to pick one design that pleased the most people, Apple may have nailed it. But the problem is that they don't offer any variety. I don't agree that there is a perfect form factor for everyone, but rather the right form for the right person.
Personally, I miss the form factor of the HTC Smartflip and Tornado. Heck even some of the classic Nokia s60 devices had better ergonomics to the iPhone for the way I use my devices. But I recognize that not everyone has the same needs as me, that is why there are options.
Ideally, I wish Apple would offer different models. But I know they won't because it would fragment their ecosystem.
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