Tuesday, November 15, 2011
The tipping point: Android won
I know we all love Apple. I know you do not see many Androids in the hands of pundits in Silicon Valley. I know you like to think different. Still, Android keeps taking market share away from everyone. And iOS market share is shrinking.
Look at today's data from Gartner:
You are reading it right: Android has now more than 50% of the market, while iOS has less market share than a year ago. Android keeps growing, quarter after quarter. Apple will grow this quarter for sure, because of the iPhone 4S, but Android is going to grow faster.
There is a moment where you realize a team has won, that it has taken an insurmountable lead. That moment is now. Android has passed 50%. There is no way back. It is the tipping point.
Let me brag a little: I told you so :-) Mobile Open Source wins.
All those that claim that Android is not really open source, please click here. See, Google has just released the source code of Android 4.0 (ICS or Ice Cream Sandwich). I know, there is no steering committee blah blah. However, can you negate how powerful open source has been for Android (and Google)?
Look at the tablet world. Amazon has just launched the Kindle Fire. No help from Google whatsoever. It is open source at its best. You can even take other APKs and install them on it. If you ask me, I am ready to bet that the Kindle Fire (with its younger brothers) is going to be the most popular tablet ever, even passing the iPad eventually.
Fragmentation is innovation. Open source is pushing the limit of mobile, making it better and more interesting. More, it is an open world, where the OS moves around, and apps move around. Add an open cloud, where data will move freely, and we will have a perfect world (we are far from it, but there is room to fight).
To me, the game is over. Android is dominating. The next player is so far behind, and it will not catch up. Android won.
Posted by Fabrizio Capobianco at 08:58
14 Comments:
Luca Filigheddu said...
No doubt there are many advantages and market share speaks by itself. The point is: how do we measure success, in this case? Market share? Is this the only "parameter"? I don't think so. Android is inside devices that cost less than $100, so it's obvious it will have a bigger market share. Who has the biggest market share in Italy, Fiat or Mercedes? Do we think that Fiat WON against Mercedes? I don't think so :-)
Comment Posted at 09:14
Lou Covey said...
Not sure you can make that assumption. In a two-horse race, it's a valid statement, but the Android market is essentially fractured. Amazon's Kindle Fire is now the preferred OS platform for tablet app developers. there are dozens of Android device manufacturers, most of which are barely profitable. It's become something like the argument that Microsoft won the OS war simply because they had more machines running Windows, but when you looked at the numbers, more actual work was being performed on Apple machines. iOS-based devices are still setting sales records and when you look at sheer performance, iOS still beats Android.
What may change all of this is if Microsoft buys RIM. The MS7 Phone is becoming increasingly popular for developers and has surpassed RIM, but RIM still owns thousands of wireless patents and has the best security platform with a dedicated customer base. Buying RIM would make MS a real player and create a whole new ball game.
Comment Posted at 09:22
Lou Covey said...
I'm also not sure you can say Android is beating iOS as much as it is stripping market share from Symbian and RIM.
Comment Posted at 09:25
Fabrizio said...
Luca, I agree on it. But Fiat and Mercedes compete in different markets ;-) We are talking smartphones here, we are not comparing Nokia feature phones with Android smartphones (yep, Nokia still wins). Volumes means more people with the OS, more reach, more market for developers and so on. Windows won the market share in the PC world, and it shows. Mac is better and great (and the one I am typing this message on), but they have a small percentage of market share. Windows won...
Comment Posted at 09:26
Fabrizio said...
Lou, of course Android is stealing market share from other vendors. And the market is expanding. However, the net result is very visible...
If you say that Windows did not win in the PC world, then I rest my case ;-)
Comment Posted at 09:28
Folletto Malefico said...
Fabrizio, I agree on most of what you say, but "winning/losing" is such a binary way of stating things that is really simplistic, and... not real.
What's winning here is the co-existence of different cultures, and ways of approaching things. It would be a really poor world a world dominated only by opensource software. Not because it's morally or ideologically poor, but because in its values it would have reduced the variation that makes an ecosystem alive.
Today in the mobile world is winning the difference of different approaches, ways to compete on the market and different services to be offered to people.
And actually, that's the core value from where opensource comes from.
Comment Posted at 09:44
Fabrizio said...
Folletto, I agree, but winning/losing is so much more fun :-) Our minds like binary ways...
Comment Posted at 10:25
Ken Rugg said...
Android may have won, but another question is does this really matter.
Apple isn't really competing with Android, but with HTC, Samsung, Motorola, etc. Just as in the PC wars, it was competing with Dell and Compaq and not Microsoft. Of course, Android makes it easier for HTC or Motorola, (or Amazon with Kindle Fire,) to compete with Apple, just as Windows enabled the plethora of competitors for the Mac.
That of course sets up a classic "modular vs. interdependent" dynamic described in Clay Christensen's Innovator's Solution. There was a pretty prescient blog post on exactly how this would play out from a few years back:
http://chrisklein.wordpress.com/2008/10/30/apple-vs-android-modular-to-interdependent-and-back-to-modular/. Interdependent solutions rarely "win" when the market commoditizes around modular solutions, but if you can retain that position and still retain significant share, profits are generally better than the more commoditized competitors.
Fiat vs. Mercedes is an interesting analogy. To a large extent I think the auto industry is the one place where (largely) interdependent solutions do win. While there is a complex supply chain and some reusable parts, most major components of a car aren't replaceable by components from a competitor's vehicle.
I believe a big part of this is that cars are not just a utilitarian purchase, but a "fashion statement" and the industry is built on planned obsolescence and churning model years. Steve Blank posted an interesting article recently comparing Apple to GM that touches on this point, "How the iPhone Got Tail Fins: http://steveblank.com/2011/10/18/how-the-iphone-got-tail-fins-–-part-1-of-2/
Finally on the comparison to Windows vs. Mac. Of course, I agree that Windows "won" by being the dominant desktop OS and that Android may win (have won) the battle for dominant mobile OS. I am typing this response on my MacBook Pro, however, and I think Apple is still doing just fine vs. Dell, HP, etc. on that front.
Comment Posted at 12:05
Lou Covey said...
Interesting story this week re: Android and iOS http://news.businessweek.com/article.asp?documentKey=1376-LUBB7D1A74E901-67U203GSK43UTKH8LML40U6LCS
Comment Posted at 07:50
Lou Covey said...
And here's another regarding who is winning. http://www.minimallyminimal.com/journal/2011/11/16/coffee-time-market-share-vs-profit.html
Comment Posted at 13:38
Samsung Mobiles said...
I am really shocked after looking at these stats that Android covering market higher than the Apple.
Comment Posted at 03:24
Massimo said...
yeah, Windows won, too, but you're probably using a Mac ;-)
Comment Posted at 12:07
Fabrizio said...
Of course I am using a Mac! I am always on the loser side ;-)
Comment Posted at 12:32
jason @ Voip said...
Apple will not be pleased with that! They won't take it lying down, but this time they might have to bite the bullet!
Go go Android!
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