Sunday, June 08, 2008

The iPhone surprise

I have been predicting most of Steve Jobs moves lately with a good degree of accuracy. From the iPod Touch to the Macbook Air (the one I am writing this post with...) and more.

Ok, I got lucky...

Tomorrow, however, is another big day. I know you are thinking Steve Jobs keynote at Apple WWDC in San Francisco. I am actually thinking about Italy playing its first game in Euro 2008...
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Do you realize that Apple has put the WORLDWIDE conference of developers the week of Euro 2008?? Nobody in Italy and the Netherlands will care less about the keynote tomorrow... This shows you the lack of priority management in Cupertino. They would have never put a conference the day of the Super Bowl, I can guarantee you that...
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Coming back to Apple, tomorrow is their big day as well. The new operating system for the iPhone will be unveiled (iPhone 2.0), together with the Application Store and a bunch of new apps.

Everyone knows they will announce the 3G iPhone. Most predict it will have GPS as well and it will be thinner. I agree.

That's it. Nothing more. Boring news. A phone an AT&T VP told us about six months ago. BOOORING.

Not a chance, I believe. Jobs likes to surprise people. He will announce all that but something more. Something that will make people say "WOW, they did it again!".

Apple is known to launch a product and then work on it until it is perfect, branching off children. They started with the iPod, then they did the mini, the nano, the shuffle. Some were bad (like the first shuffle) but then turned out great in the next generation (like the last shuffle).

My prediction is that Apple will launch an iPhone baby. A mini iPhone. A mass market phone (the original iPhone is going to be sold as an enterprise product in Italy, at 500 euros or so...). Unlocked. Only available in the US stores, initially. Below $200.

What are the odds I am right? Very minimal, borderline zero ;-) But if Apple launches a mass market phone tomorrow, then Steve Jobs might be reading my blog for real... I wrote 18 months ago that the iPhone was going to be a niche product: it is actually turning out to be a niche product (although the good news is that the niche is growing ;-) More in Europe (where they sold just a few) than in the US. What is clear to me is that a mass market phone would be a game changer.

In any case, I'll find it out once the game will be over.