I am an art dealer

Yesterday I attended the third Venice Sessions event. It is an event promoted by Telecom Italia and held at their Future Centre in Venice. Spectacular location. The invitation by Telecom Italia to attend the event was the main reason for my last European trip, although as usual I packed the trip with a million of other things...

The topic was "Technology and modern art". Very interesting, because if there is something Italians are famous for, that is art (ok, ok, for the Garfields out there... pizza is a close second). In particular when you are talking about that topic inside that building inside that city... Art is everywhere, even overwhelming at times.

At first, I was a bit puzzled. Why was I there? Why did they invite me? I sell software for mobile phones, I had little in common with most of the speakers, beside personal interest. When the museum people were talking about paintings, exhibitions, modern art, I was just listening in awe. They were speaking a language I barely understood. I felt way out of my league.

And then, along the day, someone started talking about creativity.

Boom, lights on.

I always talk about Italy as the perfect spot for high tech innovation, software in particular. My usual argument is that software is pure creativity, a fine product of the brain. That Italians are masters of creativity, from paintings to sculptures to fashion to design to clothing to furniture to food. That software is just another representation of creativity, that is in the country DNA (in kilos). It is what made Italy a success worldwide, for centuries. Italians are meant to build great software.

I then realized, with the microphone in my hand, that software is actually a form of modern art. I realized that software developers are modern artists.

I always insisted to call my guys software designers, instead of developers, because they deserve to be considered at the same level of clothes designers, or architects: people that are known to be cool. Software design has not been considered cool in Italy. But it should, because it is a form of art. Artists are cool. And software developers are artists.

And now that makes me an art dealer, I guess.

Looks what happens when you listen to smart people in a beautiful place: you walk in as a software salesman, you walk out with a sense a coolness.

The content trap

In a world where mash-up is the buzzword (or was it? Web 2.0 is not that cool anymore...), you would assume content is freely available to anyone. That you can take some data from Google, mash it up with something coming out of Facebook, Yahoo and so on.

That is true, up to a certain point.

The trick is that who owns the content (even the User Generated Content...) owns the content. It is as simple as that. If you do not own the content, you have to get it from somewhere else. The company that owns it can shut you down whenever they want. They do not even have to ask for your permission... You might have the APIs to technically access their content, but that is not nearly enough.

One example is what happened today at Facebook. They shut down an application that was simply creating an RSS feed of your stream. Granted, the app was overstepping some boundaries on Facebook privacy rules, but they could have just changed the rules, had they not like it.

This is exactly what happened in the Instant Messaging world (at least in mobile). Do you know any mobile IM company that made it? I don't... You can easily build a Yahoo Messenger integration, but when you go and sell it to a mobile operator they will ask you "do you have permission from Yahoo?". Nope? Go ask them and they will charge you. Everyone will do the same. The economics will never work when you are trying to sell a free app and you have to pay hard dollars to the content owner.

I could go on and on with examples. If you do not own the content and you are trying to build an application accessing it, you are putting your foot in a trap. As soon as you are successful, you sell it to someone or you get a lot of users, be sure the content owner will knock at your door asking for money. They will say you use too much of their bandwidth for free or that they changed their privacy rules or whatever. Bottom line: they will ask for money (rightly so, they own the content after all) and you will be screwed.

If you are a mobile operator and you do not own the content, you are also screwed... It is exactly the same thing as above. Build an integration and they will come after you. Your only option is to actually be the content owner. Take the user generated content first (it is easy and it is free, with no copyright issues), then you can add more. But be very careful on avoiding the content trap. The Internet Portals are just waiting for you to put your foot in the trap...

Apple made AT&T a pipe

There is a war the device manufacturers are waging against the carriers. A scary one for the mobile operators, in particular because they are attacked by Internet Portals as well, at the same time...

It all started with RIM. They took over the relationship with the customer. The carrier disappeared. The only thing that reminds me of AT&T on my BlackBerry is a plastic sticker on the front. Nothing else. While I am roaming around the world, the BlackBerry still works and I do not even remember which carrier I am using. My email is synced with the BlackBerry Internet Service, AT&T is just a pipe.

RIM was not a big problem for carriers. They could manage it. It was a niche in the enterprise, and a very lucrative one (BlackBerry users do not mind paying big bucks). Then RIM started moving into the consumer market... Now they have more BIS users than BES users (70-30 ratio), so more consumers than enterprises. They are eating in the carriers plate.

Still, the carriers can take it. RIM is a small threat. Still a niche.

What is scary is Nokia with Ovi, in particular in Europe and Asia. In some countries, they have 50% and more of market share. They are just coming in and taking over. The operators are fighting back, but some are tempted by the shortcut ("I can make some money fast, let's launch Nokia Messaging and we'll see what happens later") and will commit suicide. The smart ones are resisting and looking at alternatives (I know one...). They still can fight.

Overall, Nokia is a risk, a very big one. But it has not materialized yet. They have not proved they can create data services that people use. As of now, they are just a device manufacturers. They do not know how to deal with services. Exactly as the carriers. They are a scary player to deal with, but not right now right here.

Then there is Apple. Same game as above, but a lot worst. They know services. They own music, the app store, MobileMe and more. They have proven they can do it, with one billion apps downloaded.

On my iPhone, AT&T is not even a sticker. Not even a physical object... It is a bunch of pixels on the top left. So virtual it can disappear in a second.

Want some proof?

Check the leak about Verizon and Apple talking. Who do you think leaked the news? I have my ideas... They did not leak it to a technology magazine, they went all the way, to a consumer outlet like USA Today!

It just puts an enormous pressure on AT&T, who needs to renew the contract with Apple. Best way to get a good deal? Work with the competition and let everyone know it.

The sad story: AT&T needs Apple way more than Apple needs AT&T. The Verizon leak is a living proof. They can walk away when they want. Why?

Because Apple OWNS their customers. They own the AT&T consumers...

Guess what? They have already made AT&T a pipe...

Oracle + Sun and mobile

I have read quite a lot of comments on the acquisition of Sun by Oracle.

Most have focused the analysis on MySQL, since it is actually a cool story: Oracle is taking off the market the #1 long-term competitor, one they wanted to acquire some time ago (for $850M, some say) before Sun got it for $1B. In a way, Oracle now bought the entire pie, getting the icing for free. Sweet.

Some are focusing on Java, simply because Oracle said that is the main reason for the acquisition. The focus goes quickly on Weblogic, the heavy reliance of Oracle on Java and so on. It makes sense.

However, there is a point nobody is discussing: what about the #1 money generator for Sun on the software side? I mean, JavaME, Java on mobile... Sun has made zero dollars (or so) on Java, outside mobile. It is a little secret, but Sun has made a ton of money of JavaME. Ton for my standards, of course. Some might object they could have made more. But they made a lot.

Moreover, Sun is the de-facto standard development platform on feature phones today. JavaME is on every phone. Yes, you might argue it is a mess (every phone is different) and that they are at risk of losing the battle on the smartphone front. But the smartphone world has way too many operating systems to keep going as it is. Developers are going nuts. The mobile market needs ONE platform.

Sun has been working on it for a while. The JavaFX effort is going in the right direction. They have a foothold in the mobile operators and device manufacturers. They are moving towards smartphones, unifying desktop, mobile and TV.

Yes, the future could be a full web development environment, as I wrote in the past. But, as there is room for Flash on desktops (it is not all Ajax), there is room for JavaFX on mobile. With the market penetration of JavaME, Sun is the company best positioned to make it. And let me remind you that mobile is the future of everything ;-)

Bottom line: acquiring Sun means for Oracle controlling a piece of the future of mobile. They have not been that active on it, beside some Service Delivery Platform offering. They now control a gem, on the client side. They have a critical presence around the future of computing.

I am expecting Oracle not to screw this up, actually the opposite. I believe when they say "We bought Sun for Java" they actually mean more "We bought Sun for JavaFX, and mobile in particular". They will invest in it, even more than Sun has done so far.

I would. Wouldn't you?

Momentum momentum momentum

You keep working and working. You keep signing customers. You keep working and working. You get them live. After they go live, their user base starts growing fast. You are happy.

What do you do next?

You tell the world you did it, so you won't celebrate alone :-)

In technical terms, it is called a momentum release. In layman terms, it is a "hey, look at us, we are growing like crazy! Join the fray...".

So, here it is our momentum release of today, focused on the non-carrier world:

Funambol Open Source Cloud Sync and Push Email Powers Innovative Mobile Services for Tens of Millions of Users
Includes smart self-updating address book, free unlimited text messaging, free national directory, virtual digital content organizer and next-gen voice services

Who are these companies? Some are shy and did not give us permission to use their name (and, as always, they are the largest deployments ;-) :

• a smart self-updating address book with 13 million users
• free unlimited text messages to any mobile phone; mjoy by Venista, www.mjoy.com
• free integrated national address book; tacty by telegate:118000, www.tacty.com
• next-gen telephony for consumers and businesses, JAJAH www.jajah.com
• virtual digital content organizer, ZangbeZang by Key Criteria, www.zangbezang.com
• leading digital phone service provider with millions of subscribers
• best-selling customer management solution with millions of users
• innovative internet services provider, Solcon by Qaleido, www.qaleido.com
• email hosting provider for businesses and resellers, www.fusemail.com

Feel free to check them out. They do have an amazing product... And we are happy.

Skype on the iPhone, fences, and pipes

The only interesting news of CTIA was Skype on the iPhone (and soon on the BlackBerry). The floor was full of people playing around with it and saying "oooohhh, it works!".

It does. It works very well. Over wi-fi, the quality of calls resembles the one of your PC (that is, not perfect but ok, and the price is right).

The limitation? Voice does not work on 3G on AT&T (but chat does, which is nice) and the app cannot be used at all in Germany with Deutsche Telekom (they even said they will cancel your contract if they find you cheating around with Skype, which is doable for the tech savvy).

The debate is on. Can carriers really limit the use of applications by their own users? Does it even make sense? Will it be supportable long-term?

The answer is no (sorry). If you are a carrier, you can limit the usage of your network (e.g. charge for data over a certain threshold, and voice is quite data intensive) but you can't limit single applications. It is not practical. It is not going to work in the long term.

The world is too open now, there is no way back. There are no walled gardens anymore. Maybe you can still put on a fence, but people will go around it. It is just a matter of time.

So, what if you are a carrier? Well, you are still making a ton of money, not a bad situation to be in. If VOIP takes off, your voice revenues are at risk, but they will be compensated by data revenues. Maybe just partially. But it is not like your revenues will disappear.

The world is going towards data. Voice is a data type. Period. Everything will go through the same pipe. You control the pipe, you make money. The risk? Become the pipe and nothing else.

How do you get out of becoming just a pipe? Not with fences. Build a playground, make people happy to stay with you, give them services, make sure they are so happy with you they won't go anywhere else (or, at least, lock their most important data like an evil Google).

Mobile cloud services. There is no other answer. That's the long term game. The rest is just happening, it is a snowball transforming in an avalanche. You can't stop it.

GPL is the new BSD

I know, I know, I promised I would not write about open source licenses anymore. The debate is over: AGPL is the license to use, let's move on. However, I still feel there is so much more education needed... So many people pick GPL without knowing what AGPL is, thus screwing the future of their projects in the cloud computing world ahead of us... It is sad to watch and sometimes I want to yell ;-)

Today I read a very nice (long) post by Jeremy Allison (of Samba fame).

The message is exactly my usual one: "GPL is the new BSD". GPL in a cloud computing world loses copyleft, and everything great that came with that (arguably, the entire free software and open source movements).

Jeremy wrotes:

For network services running in a cloud, [AGPL] brings back the fairness provision that the original GPL intended, and returns the freedom that Free Software promises to all users and developers.

Currently the AGPL is a minority license as compared to the GPL. Not much Free Software is currently written directly to serve cloud computing network services.

But cloud computing is going to change the industry in as profound a way as client server did in the late 1980s and 1990s. The ability to easily provision and scale up software services based on the Free Software LAMP stack (Linux / Apache / MySQL /PHP or Perl or Python) or more modern fare such as the open source Java software framework Hadoop is going to massively change the way software is developed. Of course at my day job, it already has for many of the engineers.

Even old fogies like me are going to have to learn some new tricks in this world. Free Software is going to have to adopt as well. I still have lots of Samba code to write first (no, Samba isn’t a finished product yet), but if I ever work on cloud computing code, I’d like to see it under the AGPL, in order to preserve the freedoms I’ve been able to enjoy in conventional software development these many years. Without the AGPL, our freedoms will depend on the kindness of strangers donating their modifications to our code back to us, as they did in the days before the GPL license and the FSF was born

Well said. GPL is going to be the new BSD. Google (his employer) will exploit it as long as possible. People should wake up and "give it an A". C'mon, AGPL is the way to go, just get over it and adopt it, so I can win my bet with Mark...

Impressions of CTIA 2009

I just came back from CTIA in Vegas, biggest US show for wireless. I was sick, but I dragged my body around for two days. I believe it was worth the effort.

Impressions:

1. The show was smaller, but not too small. That made look the floor quite crowded at times. However, looking at the lines at Starbucks, there were way less people than the last years (unless the downturn makes people less interested in coffee). There was a show beside CTIA, about car washing. Another market that might not suffer too much in this economy ;-)
   
2. The atmosphere was not upbeat but neither downbeat. Right in the middle, with a tilt towards upbeat (many people thinking the worst is behind us, see the numbers of RIM today if you need a proof)
3. There was absolutely no news to report. No new devices worth mentioning. No nada.
4. Networking was great as usual. The quality of the people that attended was very high (and with quality we mean rank in a large scale organization with cash to spend, of course)
5. Best thing in the show was a real Formula 1 car, with a simulator that actually moved the car left and right, back and forth (for acceleration and braking). Awesome. I scored a pretty good time, but I wished I could have played a lot longer. Nothing to do with wireless, but hard to beat

My conclusions:

1. I decided last year that it was going to be our last time exhibiting at CTIA. I have zero regrets. The show has no meaning left. It is after CES and MWC in Barcelona. Everything happens before it. Move it to September and we'll talk about coming back to exhibit
2. It is worth going, even sick, because everyone is there. The networking is great. With the prices in Vegas this time (I got a room at the five stars Wynn for $119, and a free upgrade to a Tower Suite. Circus Circus was going for $17 a night...) and the cheap flight from the Valley, it makes it even better. You meet 10 people from the East Coast and your cost analysis shows a 50 times ROI. $200 for two days of back-to-back meetings are hard to beat. I will definitely be back next year.
   

Commercial Open Source is very healthy

Last week was Commercial Open Source week for me. I met almost everyone in the industry, since I spoke at OSBC in San Francisco and I attended OSGR in Utah. The latter was a lot of fun, the former a bit surprising.

I wrote in the past that I believed LinuxWorld was done, and I was right... I also wrote that the next one up was OSBC. I now feel I was wrong. OSBC is morphing, naturally (I do not think Matt was anticipating this, it just happened). It started as a club of Commercial Open Source people discussing about business models and licenses. It became an outlet for large companies trying to behave opensourcy. It is now an education conference, for people that know a little about open source and nothing about how to make money with that.

I gave a talk about my way to build a successful open source business (similar to the keynote I gave at the World Computer Congress). I started with basic concepts, like "what is open source" or "what is dual licensing". At least half of the audience was listening with a level of attention that surprised me. I was talking about concepts everyone knew at the first OSBC. Not now, not at this one.

Open source has crossed the chasm. It is mainstream. The rest of the population (which happens to be the vast majority) is now looking at ways to create businesses around it. They do not know the basic concepts. They come to OSBC to learn them.

That is why OSBC was packed and the rooms were full, during an economic downturn where nobody is traveling.

The other angle came from OSGR and some of the chat in the hallways at OSBC. Every CEO I talked to said the same thing: "we are doing pretty well, business is growing, despite the economy". OSGR was the last days of the quarter, and everyone was relaxed.

Open Source companies are doing well. The downturn is helping them. I talk to a lot of CEOs in the Valley and, believe me, everyone is hurting badly. They are all scared to death. No cash from VCs, their customers delaying payments, some dying, contracts slipping quarter after quarter.

Not in the Open Source world. This market is very strong. It is now attracting the bulk of the market. It is perceived as the Walmart of software. And that is where people go to shop in a crisis.

Long life Open Source. Long life OSBC.

The bar is way too low at RIM

As you might know, RIM has two different models to push email (and sync).

One is called BES, or BlackBerry Enterprise Server. It is installed behind the firewall at medium/large corporations. It does push email and sync with Exchange.

The other one is called BIS, or BlackBerry Internet Service. No server software is installed. You open a wap page on your BB, tell RIM where your email is (Yahoo, Gmail or your POP/IMAP server) and your email gets pulled from your server and then pushed on your device (kinda push email ;-) However, there is no sync. None. You have to plug in your cable in your PC to sync with your Outlook. And you have to install the horrible BlackBerry Desktop software to do it.

The interesting thing that many people do not know is that BIS is half of the BlackBerry users today. And growing faster than BES. The Pearl first and the other prosumer devices that RIM is pushing in the market are mostly attracting BIS users. And some BES replacement. But few new BES users.

I use a BlackBerry with BIS these days. The sync is provided by Funambol, with the local BlackBerry sync client (the new one syncs contacts, calendar, notes, tasks and even pictures). I have the Funambol plug-in in Outlook, which pushes the PIM data to the cloud, keeping it in sync with my BlackBerry. No cables. On top of it, I have a website where I can see my data and change it if I am far from my computer, I am too lazy to type on my BlackBerry or I am out of battery (which happens ;-) Both system can be accessed by my wife and my assistant, if they want to screw up with my calendar and life.

BTW, all the above is available today for free at my.funambol.com if you are a BIS user. If you are a carrier and you want to give this service to your BIS users, give us a call. It is one of the hottest products at Funambol these days.

I also use the Funambol email client on my BlackBerry, although it does not make too much sense because I could use BIS. The email client, though, makes sense if you use BES and you want to have a separate Inbox for your personal live, so that your assistant does not find out you like soccer or something else...

I use the BIS just to test it. I have a Yahoo and Gmail account set up. For a while, I noticed that every time I was sending out an email with Gmail, it would appear again in the Inbox (sometimes, more than once). I thought I was doing something wrong. Somehow the RIM marketing image of a "perfect company" created a reality distortion field. I could not imagine for a second this was a RIM bug, because it was just too big...

Yesterday, RIM announced BIS 2.6, the new release of the service. As part of the release, now you can see your password when you type it (wow) and, mostly:

*BlackBerry Internet Service 2.6 uses Internet Message Access Protocol (IMAP) to integrate Gmail® webmail accounts. This integration protocol introduces the following benefits:
o Elimination of sent email messages appearing as received email messages in the message list on the BlackBerry smartphone
o One-way synchronization of read status, sent items, and deleted items.

What?? I wasn't stupid... It was a bug, fixed in the new release as a "benefit". Man, I wish I could go by with a bug like that in the open source world. The community would be yelling at us at the alpha stage (some would notice it even earlier in a nightly build...). Not a chance. And RIM is live worldwide. And Gmail is the fastest growing email system!

There is more:

* To use these improvements, BlackBerry smartphone users must remove and reintegrate their Gmail webmail accounts.

Whaaaat? I have to remove all my emails, open the awful WAP page, remove my account and create it again (but I could see my password now ;-)? To fix a bug??

I just can't believe it. The open source bar is just so high that quality is a must, not an optional. There is nothing marketing can do, when you are out there naked. They see you. You can't hide.

Open source is changing the way software is developed. It brings a different level of quality. It is destined to wipe out any closed source alternative. Yep, even if it is RIM, the perfect company with perfect software. Just wait (a few tens of years :-))

Silicon Valley is the center of mobile

Today I was reading the latest newsletter by Gerry Purdy, the Chief Analyst for mobile at Frost&Sullivan. It is titled "Silicon Valley 'Golden Triangle': Apple, Google, Microsoft and Palm Mobile Platforms".

He writes:

It seems amazing to me that five of the top six mobile platforms are being developed near each other within Silicon Valley (an area that is approximately South of Highway 92, North of Highway 17 and bounded on the East by the SF Bay and West the foothills, although there’s no real boundary). If you connect the locations of these companies, it looks like three points a triangle.

Apple is working on the iPhone platform (OS, App Store, iTunes) in Cupertino. Set that as point one. Go about 10 miles North West up Highway 85 to the Bayshore Freeway (Highway 101 at Rengstorff), and you’ll find Google working in Mountain View on the Android platform (Android OS, Market Place and general mobile apps such as search and maps). You’ll also find Microsoft working on much of Windows Mobile in their Mountain View campus at Shoreline & 101). Set that at point two. Go South East around 10 miles to Sunnyvale, and you’ll find Palm working on the new Pre platform (Web OS, Synergy and Apps Store). Set that as point three. And, if you go around 10 miles back South West from Palm you end up back in Cupertino at Apple.

He adds that there are just two other areas of mobile development, Helsinki (for Nokia) and Waterloo (for RIM), but the message is clear: Silicon Valley is the center of mobile.

Somehow, I struck me as a revelation. Although I have been living here for ten years, when I moved to the Valley in 1999 (ohhh, the good times ;-) Silicon Valley was so far away from the center of mobile. I mean, my grandma had a cellphone in Italy and in my Silicon Valley company, about to IPO, there were probably five people with a mobile device that was not a pager (what is a pager you ask, my fellow European? Well, you must have seen one in a movie about doctors... They were everywhere in the US).

I picked Silicon Valley for Funambol because I thought it was the best of the best to headquarter an high-tech startup. Even if mobile was nowhere to be found. Even if I was going to 3000 Sand Hill to meet VCs and my phone had no coverage, so I could not give them a live demo (last time I was there last year, the situation was not very different..). Even if driving from San Francisco to San Jose on 280 meant five dropped calls.

Back then, I thought I was fighting against the odds. Hard to find investors with knowledge of the wireless market worldwide (the differences are striking, from Japan to Europe to the US). Hard to convince people mobile was the next big thing. That Silicon Valley was best positioned to ride the next wave.

Boom! Look at it now. The Valley is the center of mobile.

I just did not realize that I picked Silicon Valley as a natural headquarter, and then the entire mobile world shifted here. It must be the weather.

Apple: openness can't be faked

Yesterday, I spent a few good hours trying to download the documentation of the iPhone 3.0 SDK from the Apple Developer Connection site. The site was down for almost the entire day. Talk about interest by developers for the new OS version... And inability for a company like Apple to keep up with it (hey, they are not famous for servers, right? ;-)

My goal was to find the new Calendar API (we need it to provide calendar sync with Funambol). They claimed 1,000 new APIs in the slides. They built the entire presentation on openness to counter Android, Symbian, Windows Mobile and Palm. It must be there, I thought.

Unfortunately, it is not there. I could not find it. Either I am dumb (which is likely) or blind (nope, my vision is ok, I just changed glasses) or it is just not there.

I mean, 1,000 new APIs and none to give access to one of the two basic data elements in a smartphone (the other being the address book)...

Are they kidding me? Nope. They just play their cards. They do not want a MobileMe competitor on the iPhone. They will give you CalDAV, .ics support, even ActiveSync for the enterprise. But no access for developers. They might build something too good...

I know, I am bitter. But I am right to be bitter :-)

They are just playing the openness card and it is just a fake. Android is open, very open, almost too open... Windows Mobile has all the APIs you need. Same for Symbian, which is going to be even more open. BlackBerry has APIs for everything.

Apple does not.

You just can't fake openness, Apple . Even if you put names on a slide, it takes five seconds (or hours, if your site is down) to discover it is just words.

What I am sure about, is that they are going to pay for it. The lack of openness is going to bite them back one day. The world is going in a different direction and their tactics work when they are the only game in town. When they are not, it just relegates them to a small percentage of the market. I think it is just a waste, for such a fantastic company.

And I know, you are right, I am bitter...

Apple catching up

The tile of my previous post, with the predictions for the iPhone 3.0 OS presentation was "Apple raising the bar". After the presentation, I actually have to say Apple is trying to catch up... The features announced were unimpressive and there was no real news.

On my predictions, nothing from MEDIUM to LOW came true (hey, I got it right), while most of the HIGH made it (I am not sure about a couple yet, but I will double-check and report later).

My HIGH probability predictions:

1. Copy & Paste. MADE IT
2. MMS. MADE IT
   
3. Calendar API access from the SDK. NOT SURE YET, but they have said they have 1,000 APIs available. I would be shocked if calendar is not there...
   
4. A Task application. NOT SURE YET. Definitely they did not mention it, so this is the one that might not have made it (or is it too small to talk about it, we'll see)
   
5. Push support. Not the one that actually makes sense (for that you need multithreading support), but the one Steve Jobs announced almost a year ago for last September and never delivered. A crappy push, but at least some push. MADE IT (and the good push did not)

What else? Spotlight (for searching), landscape support for more apps (Mail, about time...), some improvements on the Stock app (news at the bottom), Caldav and .ics support for Calendar (good), Voice memos, API for hardware devices (very interesting, in particular the medical applications), Maps in you app (crucial for geolocation in social networking, it is going to be big), subscription paid models in the App Store (more ways to make money for developers, always a positive), Peer to Peer support via Bluetooth (very cool for sharing contacts or multiplayers games).

Not a bad list, but the rest of the pack is now ahead of Apple (wow). Palm in particular. Apple is behind the competition, they have to catch up. The question is whether Palm can actually deliver. If they do, we have a new ballgame.

Apple raising the bar

The guys at Apple are setting things up nicely: first, they had Palm go out with the Pre announcement and all the noise the WebOS generated. Then they had Google sort-of announce that the G1 is coming out with a new Android version in a month.

Now they are ready to raise the bar. When everyone has shown their cards, they will come out with something probably awesome, and have everyone else scramble to catch up. They are magicians at this. They could have released something new for the iPhone in a while: think about it, the iPhone 3G was just a minor upgrade, nothing really new came out from them on the iPhone front since that magic January 2007 (that's over two years ago...). There was no reason to do it. Now there is. Time to punch.

Next Tuesday, on March 17th, Apple will announce the iPhone 3.0.
What will be in it? Well, let me try to categorize my guesses.

HIGH PROBABILITY

1. Copy & Paste. No questions on this one. You do not want people to migrate to other platforms for a stupid missing feature. Even if they are just geeks and business people.
2. MMS. If you live in the US, you probably never heard of this one. Believe me, it is quite big in Europe and you can't sell a phone without it (unless you are Apple, but it is wise to add it anyway...)
3. Calendar API access from the SDK. Ok, this is a small feature, but it would allow us to finally support sync of calendars on an iPhone. That would be nice, since it is the #1 request I am hearing when I travel around and I always have to explain that it is not my fault, but Apple's.
4. A Task application. Yep, it is missing in the iPhone. Time to add it.
5. Push support. Not the one that actually makes sense (for that you need multithreading support, see below), but the one Steve Jobs announced almost a year ago for last September and never delivered. A crappy push, but at least some push. Unless they go for multi-thread, which has its complications, as you can see below.
   

MEDIUM PROBABILITY

1. Tethering to your PC. I just do not think this is going to make it, unless AT&T is allowed to come up with a specific additional plan attached to it. If not, they will prevent Apple to do it. No carrier will like it overseas as well (tethering to a PC means a lot of traffic, and they all have caps on data usage in Europe. You would think the carriers would be happy that you go over your data quota, but the cost to answer the phone when pissed customers are calling is too high. It does not make good business sense). Apple has learned they have to work with carriers to succeed in this market, so this happens only with them in agreement.
2. Flash support. Apple wants to control the development environment, so they have not allowed Flash so far. But with the App Store so big, I feel Flash would be a second citizen anyway. The time to get Flash in has arrived, I believe.
3. Multi-thread support and real push. The Pre has it. Apple can't allow them to steal the show. The new iPhone OS must allow more than one app to run in the background. The issue? Battery life. How do you solve this? With a new HW, which leads to the next item.
   
4. A new iPhone. Gasp. What? Well, why not? They pre-announced the first iPhone to steal the thunder. They could do the same now. Palm is coming out with something cool, they announce a new iPhone coming out in June, show the OS now and have everyone wait for it (hurting Palm badly). It makes sense to me...
5. A very cool wireless charger. The Pre has it, do you want them to be the only ones? Clearly, this requires a new device as well.
   

LOW PROBABILITY

1. An iPhone-based netbook. I actually bet on this months ago and most people said I was an idiot (I am used to that ;-) However, I am a persistent idiot, so I think it will actually happen one day. That day might be next Tuesday: netbooks are the only category of laptops that are growing at a fast rate. Apple is the king of high-end laptops. They can be the king of high-end netbooks as well (at $499).
2. An iPhone keyboard. Hey, the Pre has it... Not a chance in my opinion, unless it is via Bluetooth as a separate item.
   
3. Steve Jobs showing up to say hi, live or on video. He did not even attend the Disney board meeting, so I believe there is no chance. But it would be great, and hope is cheap (or was it talk?)

That's it. Buzz is building up. We'll know very soon.

Google is scary

I have been negative on Google in the past, due to their relaxed use of open source (i.e. returning code to the community only when convenient). However, I feel that is nothing compared to what is happening (and will happen).

Today Google announced a slight change in plans. They are launching "interest-based" advertising. Camouflaged under a "making ads more interesting" tag line, in reality they are starting to use the information they collect about you browsing the web. Any site that you visit that has Google ads (pretty much all) will be used to create a profile of you, so that they can target ads to your interest (and sell it to the advertisers, of course). Their top line must be hurting...

Ok, we knew they could do it, so where is the problem?

Well, let's look at mobile for a second. They just launched Latitude. They will not use the data they will collect about you for now. Until the business starts degrading a bit more and they will change the course.

Think about it:

1. they know what you like and the site you visit, including when you do it and from where (ever noticed that Google changes language depending on where you connect from?). Not to be evil, just to create a profile of you to better target ads.
   
2. they know where you go, with Latitude, with a precision of 3 meters if you have GPS in your phone (something all phones will have in a few years). With that information, is easy to understand if you have a job or not (are you going back and forth from home every day to the same place? Then you have a job). Are you a traveler, do you go to the airport often? Do you work long hours, are you back at home late or early? Do you go out at night and have fun or stay at home in front of your TV? Out in the same bar, different bar every weekend? Which area in the city, Castro? Knowing where you are every single moment they can build a profile of the kind of person you are, quite accurately. Do not give me the BS of "it is too much data to compute!". They are scanning every book on the planet, mapping every street in the world. Nothing is too big for them. Of course, they are going to create a very accurate profile of you, but not to be evil, just to better target ads (interesting ones).
3. they read your email, if you use Gmail, which happens to be the only hosted email system growing. If you write often about soccer, you must like it. Hey, we do not care about what you write, we just read it just to create a profile of you to better target ads...
4. they know what you watch, since you must be using YouTube quite often. Watching strange things? Well, now we know what you like... Not to be evil, blah blah.
   
5. they have your cell phone, home phone, home address. I know, you say: I did not give it to them! Unfortunately, I am ready to bet that some of your friends have your email address in their address book on Gmail, including your cell phone and home phone. The fact you did not give it to Google does not mean they do not have it. They do. It just adds to your profile. In case they need to call you for delivering an ad you would really like.
   

One thing they do not have (yet) is your full social network. I am sure they are hurting. They know some of your friends, due to the address books, but they are nowhere close to what Facebook is doing. I am ready to bet it is not going to last long. They need that kind of information to better target ads... They might just buy Facebook and get over it.

Bottom line, Google is scary. There is nothing we can do about it. We can talk but at the end of the day, we use Google services (actually, I use Adblock Plus, so at least they can't target me through ads). You can opt out, but how many will? Few paranoids. In public, we are all scared about privacy. In private, we are a bunch of lazy people. Google knows it. And it collects data about us.

Very valuable data. Something they might not use. As they were not using the info they were collecting about the sites you were visiting. Wait for their stock to drop a bit, they will use the next weapon. I guarantee it.

Google is scary.

The next sync: app sync

These are very exciting times for cloud syncing technologies and products. MobileMe has started an explosion of look-alike and better-than. Everyone is jumping into cloud services these days, in particular in mobile. Mobile devices need a cloud service, because they represent just one chunk of our life. The rest is scattered among other devices, such as our desktop or laptop or netbook. And in our landline phone. And in our TV and music set. Bottom line, if you have a mobile phone that does just a bit more than just voice calls, you need a mobile cloud service.

That is why sync is big and is going to be even bigger. There are going to be more and more devices IP-enabled, getting in the space. All with the need to be synced to the rest of our (mobile) life. All pointing to the cloud.

What else to be done, once you have all your data synced in the cloud, and among all your devices?

App sync.

What's that? Well, let me try with an example. You are watching a movie on your mobile device on the train. The train stops and you have to get out, so you have to pause the movie (unless you want to miss your stop, and piss off your family because you are not home for dinner, then go for a lame excuse and a likely separation...). You get off the train saving your life from devastation, you go home, have dinner, put the kids to bed then you finally land on your couch in front of your TV. There, you find your movie waiting for a PLAY button, exactly where you left it on the train.

That's app status sync (or whatever it is going to be called, context switching or something like this... We'll get some marketing guru involved one day). One example of it is already visible with the launch of the new iPhone Kindle application. If you have a Kindle and you are reading a book, once you open your iPhone Kindle app, the book opens at the page you were reading on the Kindle. And vice versa. The status of the two apps is synced. Nice.

This applies to many apps, pretty much anything. I would like the idea of opening my mobile device and start from the Word document I was editing on my PC. Or on that email I was about to send. Or that music I was listening to in my car.

It is the next sync. First, you sync the data. Then, you sync the apps. I would really like to see the former one done (we are still far from it), but I am already looking forward to the latter.

Cloud syncing is going to be an interesting market for years to come. Stay tuned.

Mobile is still strong, despite the rest

It is hard to be optimistic on anything these days. When you look at your portfolio, read newspapers, watch TV, you are bombarded with negative over negative.

However, in a downturn there are always areas of optimism, sectors that fare much better than the rest. It is just a matter of picking them and ride the wave, while everything around is collapsing.

One of these markets - in the current downturn - is mobile. Just look at the figures below, coming from a recent IDC study.



Granted, it is not 500% year-over-year growth. But it is growth nonetheless. Personally, I would sign up my entire portfolio for those numbers. I am getting used to the -30% to -50% losses...

Why will mobile operator still do well in 2009:

1. Voice. In a crisis, people won't give up their cell phone. They will give up their landline, moving everything to their mobile device. And they will talk more, because that is what you do when you have time and you are depressed (the other thing is playing games, which is the other market that won't suffer that much). Voice revenues are going to go up, not down, with zero capex for the mobile operators.
   
2. Data. The trend towards smartphones and data plans is not going to change. People will wait a bit more to switch mobile phone, but the next one is for sure a smartphone. Some might even drop their DSL at home and go for an iPhone or the like, to save money and have everything in one place. Data plans are a great revenue generating tool for mobile operators and they will get more.

With all the clouds outside, it is hard to see clear and pick potential winners. But if you stop and analyze the market for a second, it is easy to see why mobile operators are going to fare much better than the rest. And with them, those who sell them solutions to improve data revenues and customer retention.

Life is good, I just have to stop looking at my portfolio, read news and watch TV ;-)

The new MobileWe portal

Many people showed up at our booth in Barcelona. The main feedback we received showing our new MobileWe portal was "oohhh" and "aaahhh", with some experts saying "it looks better than MobileMe!". And something you can easily brand and launch, because it is meant to be a white-labeled solution.

For those who did not make it to Barcelona, I am posting a few pictures of what we presented (clicking on the image will show it larger). I will shoot a video later to give you the full idea.

Login Page:


Home Page:


Home Page with click on a picture:


Contacts Page:


Calendar Page with week view:

A review of MWC

I had hopes to be able to report from MWC in Barcelona, as I did in the last few years, but this year I just could not make it. Too many meetings, too many parties, too much business... I know, it sounds like a lame excuse, but it is true (and I am very glad about it).

On my way back to the Bay Area, in a nice hotel in London Heathrow, I started collecting some thoughts about MWC. It moves so fast when you are in it, that it is hard to capture everything. It is easier to do it a few days later.

1. Attendance was not bad. Sure, it was slower, there were reasonable lines at the entrance, restrooms and taxi. You could even grab a table to eat. But it wasn't deserted by any means. Tons and tons of people. Everyone I expected to be there was there. Those that did not come were just the people that have no budget and browse around the show for gadgets. Those with checkbooks did not miss the show. Our booth was never empty. But we had to fix a lot less APNs for syncing from the guy who stops by saying "hey, I can't sync, can you fix it?"
2. Android was a shocking no show. I was expecting a lot of Android devices, but they just were not there. The first day, HTC did not even have the G2. It showed up the second day (thankfully). The HTC Magic (G2) will be available this spring in the United Kingdom, Spain, Germany, France and Italy. I have no idea if Android is just hard to put in a phone, or if there is something else. Last year was the year of Android announcements. This year was supposed the year of the phones actually showing up. It did not happen.
3. LiMo, instead, was present and shouting "we are still alive!". Alive they are, and they are not threatening for mobile operators (Google is). I was invited to the LiMo Foundation meeting and, when I showed up, I noticed everyone had a suit and tie... Shocking for an open source initiative. Maybe not open source enough ;-)
4. Steve Ballmer said "The time has come for us to bring the full Windows experience to mobile phones". Somehow, their brand is so screwed up that "the full Windows experience" sounds like they are bringing the blue screen of death also to phones... Anyway, they announced the App Store and Windows 6.5 with Flash (but no Silverlight... do they have a Product Management team left at Microsoft?)
5. LG announced a Windows Mobile phone, everyone said OOOHHH, then the next day they announced a Symbian phone as well. Everyone said AAAAHHH.
6. Adobe was pretty bold with Flash announcements and Sun did their part on Java FX Mobile (which I am keeping a special eye on)
7. Yahoo unveiled a mobile portal that it hopes will become “your starting point to the Internet.” It is called Yahoo Mobile. I saw Marco Boerries show it on stage (he spoke right before I did) and it was impressive. Too bad their brand is so bad, because they are doing everything right in mobile. If Google had Yahoo Mobile, it would be considered a super innovation...
8. Nokia confirmed the launch of its Ovi Store application storefront, but everyone was still talking about how they destroyed three weeks of address books in the Ovi Sync service. I am still amazed by it.
   
9. Funambol showed its "MobileWe" portal and everyone was incredibly positive about it. I knew it was gorgious but the feedback we received was beyond my expectations. We are already negotiating with the first mobile operators for a launch shortly. If you want to be first, this is the time to give us a call (but we'll take you even if you are ok being second :-)
10. Lists usually are made of 10 items, but I could not come up with one. Ohh, maybe it could be related to travel. It wasn't the best show when it came to travel, luggage, flights and so on for me. I am sure I will get some of my luck back in the future.
    

Funambol Fabrizio Barcelona

So the times has come, MWC is next week. The big show of the year. Finally: I am flying out tomorrow.

Things have been heating up a lot lately, sign of a pretty good show coming. We will be in booth #1J46 in Hall 1 (same spot as last year, with the nice couches to rest your tired feet). We'll be showing off our new "MobileWE" Funambol v8 portal, which is awesome. Preview below.

If the portal is not enough (it should), we'll also have espresso on site. And if you are very nice to us, you might actually also get a Funambol Espresso Cup, which is very cool.

We had already some leaks of a bunch of announcements we are going to make (yes, we are not that good at keeping secrets in open source...). One is with a la Mobile about Android. They have been working very hard to build an Android distro with our sync engine integrated, doing pictures, videos, music sync and more. There will be a demo at our booth with people from a la Mobile, so do not miss it. The other leaked announcement is with Phoenix Technologies, yes the public company which brings you the BIOS of your PC every time you boot it. They have extended their BeInSync product to mobile, which is a big market as you know ;-)

I was invited to speak - for the first time (sign of the times, for mobile open source!) - so I will be talking about "Exploring the impact of open source on relationships across the mobile value chain" in the "Mobilising Open Source session" Wednesday afternoon.

Apart from being around the booth with a million appointments in my calendar, many overlapping (trick learned from the airline industry: always overbook yourself at 3GSM because people do not show up or are late, then you'll manage with espresso cups :-)) I am planning to attend a bunch of events. If you are going to be at Mobile Sunday, the LiMo event and Mobile Monday Awards on Monday, the Access, Jefferies, Sun parties on Tuesday, the Nexit/Nokia dinner of Wednesday... look around because I might be there as well.

See you next week. It is going to be fun. I will try to report live daily from the show, as I did for the last few years. No promises, though.

Cloud syncing is hard to do

Ouch, after the MobileMe initial meltdown for Apple (a black eye, one of the few they have), now we have a Nokia Ovi meltdown... This one was huge, maybe worst than the Apple one.

The Register reports:

Nokia's Contacts for Ovi - the Finnish manufacturer's answer to MobileMe - was down for most of yesterday and has lost all amendments made since January 23 when the last backup was taken.

Check your calendar. Today is February 12th. They lost their users address books for the last three weeks.... Ouch. Ouch.

Cloud syncing is hard to do. There are so many ways to screw it up. Duplicate all your users contacts. Maintain security among accounts (imagine what would happen if someone would break into Ovi...). Wipe out contacts and the phone number of that girl you met last Saturday night... People would kill for less :-)

Cloud syncing is hard to do. However, as the Register says "Cloud synchronisation is ramping up to be the next big thing".

To do the next big thing, it takes a lot of time and a lot of people. Yay ;-)

The other battle: app stores

It is fascinating to watch the mobile cloud sync battle from within: Google Sync vs. Apple MobileMe vs. Microsoft My Phone vs. everyone else who is using Funambol, like AOL and many more ;-) I am so excited about all the companies that went live with Funambol last quarter and this quarter, I just want to jump on a plane and land in Barcelona to show our new v8 portal.

But I can't talk only about cloud sync, even if it is the hottest thing on the planet today.

There is another battle, which is very interesting to watch. The battle of the App Stores. Here, we have Apple App Store vs. Google Android Marketplace vs. Microsoft SkyMarket (or whatever they will call it eventually; looking at how they changed SkyBox to My Phone, I am betting for MarketStore...). There are more competitors here, like Palm App Catalog and BlackBerry Application Storefront. One per operating system, Symbian coming soon, JavaME DNF but you never know...

The latest news on the app stores front are juicy. First, Apple has passed the 20,000 apps mark. The news comes from Apptism, an iPhone app activity aggregator. The number sounds about right, since Apple has announced they passed 15,000 on January 16th. However, if 5,000 apps a month are added, the accelaration is shocking.

The question is "who can keep up with Apple?". Sheer numbers do not tell the entire story, but it is hard to deny that you can find any app on the App Store today. Most are useless and stupid, but... The App Store is huge. Apple has created an enormous developer community from zero. It is unbelievable and hard to repeat for anyone.

Google is trying. The Wall Street Journal reported that the Android Marketplace will start accepting paying apps this week. Keeping up with Apple is tough. Making money is a good reason to publish an app, however stupid. If Google does not allow a developer to make money, it will always be a second choice for many.

The advantage of Apple, though, is big. They have your credit card.

I repeat: they have your credit card.

You might think they don't, but if you look into your iTunes you will find it. They collected it once when you bought that 99c song for your daughter. Or when you walked into the store and bought an iPod (did you notice they ask you for your email when you pay? Boom, credit card linked...).

You cannot download a FREE app on iTunes, if your credit card is not valid. It happened to me, my credit card was expired, I tried to download Funambol on my iPhone and I could not make it. I had to go back to my PC, put in the new expiration date on my card and voila', the free Funambol app installed on my phone (billed for zero dollars).

Having the billing element set up, with the credit card ready for you to pay is BIG. Google does not have it, people will have to go through an additional step to buy. Bye bye impulsive buy :-))

That said, I am sure Google will soon have all your credit card as well. And your location with Latitude, as Apple already does (if you have an iPhone). What is Microsoft going to do to match evil?

We'll see, the app store novel has yet to be fully written. It is going to be fun to read.

Please no phone calls on planes (pleeeaaase)

I was about to pack to fly to Europe for Mobile World Congress (not a chance, I am going to pack an hour before check-in as usual ;-) and I remembered an article a saw a few days ago. The news was that British Airways (my preferred carrier to Europe) was planning to introduce mobile phone data-only usage on planes.

The idea is simple: allowing Crackberry addicts to check emails and surf the Internet (or use Google Maps to see where they are on the planet ;-) while still forbidding voice calls.

Few comments:

1. I like the idea and I am not bothered by it. Actually, I would love it, as I like wi-fi in the air.
   
2. What the heck happened to that "cell phones cannot be used while flying because the plane might crash" statement I heard for years on planes??
3. What happens when people figure out they can use VOIP and chat away with friends over data connections?

Item #3 is worrying. I have to admit that the first thing I did when I found wi-fi on a Lufthansa flight years ago (before they disconnected it) was using Skype to call my wife. The usual "guess where I am calling you from?". Obnoxious. I whispered and I guess most of the people around me thought I was just insane, talking to my computer. They weren't that off.

I have no other place than a plane, where nobody bothers me. Where I can work on my laptop and clean up my Inbox (it happens only during long flights), or even read a book and watch a movie. I cannot stand the idea of cell phones ringing, with the annoying ringtones most people think are cool (I don't, phone vibration should be mandatory for people with bad taste in music).

Please BA, go for data-only services, but forbid voice. As a punishment for breaking the rule, may I suggest moving the violator between two toddlers for the rest of the flight?

Since you are there, can you fix the annoying issue I have with my MacBook Air when I plug the power in, and the touchpad goes berserk? I swear I am not going to talk on a phone ever again.

The day mobile cloud syncing went mainstream

Today Google has put the stamp on the success of mobile cloud syncing. They extended their Google Sync product (which supported only BlackBerry devices up to now), to a lot more devices. Half with SyncML, the other half with ActiveSync (licensed from the enemy, Microsoft, which is big news by itself).

It is a big day for cloud syncing. The 800-pound gorilla has made his move. A day after Microsoft announced My Phone, which does pretty much the same (of MobileMe...). It makes 1,600 pounds of gorilla on cloud syncing over a weekend...

For those who thought cloud syncing would become a world-wide mass phenomenon (yep, I am now referring to myself as "those"), the last two days have been spectacular. I mean, SyncML pushed by Google means a ton of more SyncML users. Syncing pushed by Microsoft means a lot of people getting familiar with the concept. It will generate even more demand. It will make syncing truly mass market.

It is so great to see the rest of the world catching up.

Now, if you are one of those trying to add cloud sync to your strategy, today is the day of no-return. The big guys have made a move, it is now or never.

If you are a device manufacturer, you have to move NOW.
If you are a mobile operator, you have to move NOW.
If you are an operating system vendor, you have to move NOW.
If you are a portal, you have to move NOW.
If you are a service provider, you have to move NOW.

I know this looks like a marketing pitch for Funambol and our up-and-coming Mobile World Congress demo of our MobileWe-OurPhone-NotOnlyGoogleSync, and it probably is :-)) But I could not dream for a launchpad coming from Google and Microsoft... This is way too much.

It is happening now (jump). It is happening now (jump jump). It is happening now (jump jump jump). Very difficult to contain myself, I know. But I am trying hard...

Microsoft SkyBox is "My Phone"?

Man, I just wrote a post saying that - at least - Microsoft came up with an original name for their MobileMe initiative, and it turns out I was wrong... A new site went live today, http://www.getskybox.com, (and it was promptly shut down) where Skybox is actually called Microsoft My Phone.

I mean "My Phone"!!!



I still feel it might be a hoax, but all the info I gathered point to a real thing. Something Microsoft is getting ready for MWC in Barcelona. Skybox is supposed to be the outcome of their acquisition of Mobicomp in Portugal, a sync company, last June.

Q&A (summary from the site):

1. "Microsoft My Phone works only on phones that run the Windows Mobile 6+ operating system". No surprise.
2. "Recommended settings will synchronize contacts, calendar appointments, tasks, photos, videos, text messages, music, and documents between your phone and your My Phone web account". If this is true, it is tasks, videos, text messages and documents more than MobileMe (not a small difference...). But email is not there (wow).
3. "Access and update your contacts and appointments on the web Microsoft My Phone enables you to view and manage phone information by using a web browser. [..] From your web account, you can save photos to your computer or can e-mail them to family and friends.". Nice, I am curious about the documents...
4. "Microsoft does not charge a fee for the My Phone service at this time". Uuuhhh, that's $99/year less than MobileMe...
5. "How much data can I back up? Your Microsoft My Phone account gives you 200 MB of free storage on the Microsoft My Phone web site". Well, 200 MB is not that much if you sync pictures and documents. But who cares? It is free...
6. "If you accept the recommended settings, Microsoft My Phone will automatically synchronize information between your mobile phone and your Microsoft My Phone web account once per day between 11:00 P.M. and 5:00 A.M. [..]. You can also back up your data manually at any time by selecting Sync in the Microsoft My Phone application on your phone." What? No push? Only one sync a day? That is surprising, and a bit depressing.

Bottom line. If all this is true, it looks a lot more like a backup service than a real mobile life sync service (e.g. what Google gives you with Android). No email, no push and just once a day sync is very very limiting. But being free, it is a good start.

However, if you want to see the real next thing, stop by our booth in Barcelona... And yes, it works with Windows Mobile as well.

[update 7 Feb, 2009: it is all true! Microsoft has now a web site at http://www.microsoft.com/windowsmobile/myphone/myphone.aspx]

Microsoft new mobile OS to be open source?

I have been saying for a while that one day (probably in 2020 ;-) Windows Mobile will be open source. I do not see any other option for Microsoft in the long term. They will have to capitulate, although I was convinced they would fight this hard.

Instead, I bumped into a few sites that recently claim that the new Danger Sidekick 2009 will run NetBSD.

As you probably know, Microsoft bought Danger. Rumors abound of Microsoft coming up with a phone very soon (MWC?). If there is one, it will come from Danger - for sure. Some even say it will have the Zune brand (yep, some think it is a good brand... I would call it actually the Zune Vista to reinforce the brand with another good one ;-)

Now, it would have made sense for Microsoft to force Danger to use Windows Mobile. Maybe they thought about it. But probably it ended up not making sense (do you want to throw away years of work and a bunch of enthusiastic users just to push Windows Mobile?). Maybe they even realized why open source is better as a model (but they are not telling anyone ;-)

Therefore, they probably got stuck with what Danger had. And that is said to be NetBDS. Which is open source. As recent as last October, Microsoft was "looking for a talented NetBSD software developer interested in helping Danger (a subsidiary of Microsoft) ship the next generation of Danger’s Sidekick platform"... It does not leave that much doubt.

If I can't have Windows Mobile open source soon, too bad. I can live without it for a few more years. But if the other mobile OS from Microsoft is open source - the consumer one - I would be moving an inch closer to my prediction...

Open source for consumers, closed source for enterprises. Interesting choice. Sooner or later, it will be open source everywhere. That is where the world is going, after all. Microsoft is just going with the flow.

Garmin and Asus: here comes the Nuvifone (finally)

One device that I have been waiting for, with some trepidation, is the Garmin Nuvifone. A very interesting concept for a smartphone, coming from a navigation company. In a word, a smartphone that is a personal navigation device (PND) for your car, that you snap out of its in-car holder when you leave the car. Since it is a navigator, it is well designed to guide you to a restaurant and share your location with your friends. On top of it, it is a smartphone with phone capabilities and a camera, messaging, browsing and calendaring.



What is unique about this device is that it is not a smartphone with some mapping capabilities (like all the others). It is a navigation device with some smartphone capabilities. It takes the smartphone paradigm and turns it upside down.

Garmin announced it (with some fanfare) over a year ago in January 2008. I have been waiting and waiting and waiting, but the device never materialized. I always wondered if they were going to launch it with a carrier in the US, or just as a standalone product ("put in your SIM card and go"). The latter being an option not in the US, but a pretty good one in Europe.

Today, they announced the device is coming out at MWC in Barcelona (which is shaping up as a cool event) together with Asus. That's big news. Asus is the device manufacturer behind the Nuvifone, so it is no surprise. But the announcement puts Asus on the front seat with Garmin. They share the risk, the share the reward.

For Asus, is a low-risk way to get into the smartphone market with its brand (it will always be a Garmin device for the public). For Garmin, it is a way to have someone to lean on, with a distribution channel in Asia, and lower the risk (cost, I would assume) in the short term in exchange for a lower upside (if the device turns out to be wildly successful).

I found this move to be a smart one. This is 2009, after all. These days, you see everyone making careful moves. Nobody is coming out bold. Everyone is trying to play safe. Share the risk, share the reward. Join forces. The world is tough out there...

A smartphone for everyone

I was looking at a report today, plotting the price for a smartphone in the US. In May of last year, it was over $200. Now, after the Palm Treo 800w was discounted from $199 to $99 at Sprint (to leave room for the Treo Pro) and T-mobile cut the Pearl 8120 and 8220 to $79 (gulp!), the average price is $147.

Anything that goes below $150 is, by definition, affordable to anyone. It is less than three months of phone bills. It is mass market.

In an economy that is collapsing, people need to save cost and cheer themselves up. I know, it sounds bizarre, but games do always very well in a down economy. It is human nature (and having more time to waste, I guess).

Would you buy a desktop with DSL or a smartphone that can also be a camera and an mp3 player, always connected to the network, with a navigation tool like Google Maps? The former is probably $500 plus $30/month for Internet. The latter is $150 plus $20-$30/month for data.

And you will feel much better after buying it, because you can carry your shiny thingy with you everywhere, showing off iFart to your friends.

Bottom line, the smartphone is going to be one of the few areas of growth in this economy. And the price will keep coming down. A Perl for $79 is low but it can go even lower (to zero).

Me me me Mephone from Dell

Rumors have been around for years that Dell would ship a phone, one day. Now the noise is reaching levels that make me think it is happening for real. The Wall Street Journal this morning confirmed the last rumor: Dell will have two phones out for MWC in Barcelona (which starts to look like a pretty juicy event, we need one ;-)

One phone is going to be Android and one Windows Mobile.

The name? MePhone.

Really?? MePhone like iPhone but Me instead of I. A mix of iPhone and MobileMe? Naaah, I can't believe it. Not for a second. It must be a codename.

Whatever the name, the move is interesting. The choice of OSs even more. Not because either one does not make sense: Dell is a big Microsoft partner and Windows Mobile fits the bill. Android is an OS that gives Dell control of its future and it sounds quite reasonable (we'll see plenty of those at MWC, I am sure).

It is interesting because they did not choose ;-) Coming out with an open source OS and a closed source one is a no-choice. A way of saying "We do not know what the market will do, so we'll let it choose for us". A way to keep Microsoft calm and open a door to the future (which is open source, however biased I am). Let them fight and see who wins. Nobody gets upset.

On the other side it also says "we are not investing our own time and resources on this". I mean, it is an experiment. We are not committed 100%. We are not placing a bit bet. Just a bet. And then we'll see.

I think it is a smart move. They do not take risk, they do not expose themselves too much, they will pick the winner later. The only risk of not making a move is not making a move. If the market moves too fast (it always does) they risk to be defocused and have to jump on one bandwagon quickly, dropping the other one. Motorola has done exactly that. But they are desperate. Dell is not.

My prediction is that they will ship both for a long time, lowering the focus on Windows Mobile over time and putting all their resources on Android quickly enough. This will happen quite shortly, in a few quarters.

Microsoft needs some buzz in mobile

Microsoft is getting hammered in any market, but in particular in mobile, which happens to be the fastest (and only) growing segment of the market (yep, netbooks are part of mobile in my world).

When it comes to mobile, Microsoft flagship product is Windows Mobile. A bad looking, badly managed, low performance, slow selling operating system. In any market, Microsoft usually gets it right at version five. In mobile, we are at 6.5 and still they are years behind the competition (quoting Apple).

The last blow to MSFT is Motorola abandoning any effort on Windows Mobile. They are fully and only concentrating on Android. It is public news, you can even look at areas where MOTO is hiring: Android only. Windows Mobile is becoming just an add-on, something to drop soon.

Same for Palm. They are about to come up with the new Pre. Guess what will happen to their Windows Mobile lineup? Yep, we agree.

Who is left? HTC. Granted, they are fast growing. But they are now the leading supporter of Android (the G1 is made by HTC and I would guess the G2 will be HTC as well). And maybe Samsung and LG, that seem to have other plans as well.

Bottom line: the game of Microsoft, to reproduce in mobile the dynamics of the PC world has failed. There, they have a ton of HW vendors selling the same exact OS. Here, it just did not work as they planned.

I used to joke about this with something I heard once: if I give my daughter a hammer and tell her "be careful you could get hurt", she is likely to get hurt (maybe your kids are smarter than mine, I urge you to try it tonight to see if it is true ;-) Anyway, she will get hurt once. But she won't do it again. I can guarantee you.

HW vendors have seen what happened to them in the PC world. Totally marginalized. They won't let Microsoft or anyone else do it in mobile as well. They are much smarter now. They know they have to control their destiny and differentiate on the OS as well. They know the answer is open source.

Now Microsoft needs to do something. Quick. In an interview with CNET, Andy Lees said:

[..] Microsoft's efforts to make sure that its mobile software could run on a wide range of phones resulted in an operating system that failed to take advantage of advances in hardware. "We aimed to go for a lower common denominator," Lees said.

Nice way to say "we tried the game we played in the PC world and, oops, it failed".

He added:

"You are going to see a bunch of announcements at Mobile World Congress but also it is going to be the beginning of a 12-, 18-month period where you are going to see a whole bunch of different stuff"

So, MWC in February is the turning point. They have to come up with something great, something that will have people say wow. It is probably be a combination of the Sky services (a MobileMe and AppStore equivalent) and - maybe - a new strategy for the phone (or a phone itself? I would not rule it out). I haven't heard much since they acquired Danger and I am ready to bet MWC is going to be their coming out party.

They need buzz. Badly. A new phone would be just the right thing. They are a HW company after all (the XBox is one of the few positives going on at MSFT right now). Or it might be open sourcing Windows Mobile. That would be so cool.

With a suggestion to Andy: please try to avoid statements like the following, if you can:

"Our competitors are scrambling to try and copy our success"

Yeah, right. The one you had in the PC world ;-)

Apple, do you remember push? You promised...

Yesterday, Apple pushed out a new firmware version of the iPhone (2.2.1). A whopping 246.4MB of firmware for two exceptional features: it improves Safari stability (yep, it crashes a lot) and fixes one bug in the Mail client with images. That is it. 246.4MB for nothing.

Nobody complains about the size of the download anymore. That is good. Once they kick you in the face 10 times, you don't feel the 11th. Market expectations are set properly. The only thing this upgrade fixes is screwing up the 3G unlock... I guess that's 245MB out of the total. Nice move.

In any case, there is one feature that it is still missing: PUSH!!

Apple promised push in June. They showed a slide about it (pictured below). They said it would be available by September. They missed it. They put it in the 2.1 SDK beta, then they pulled it (oops, expectations not set properly). Rumors were they would put it in 2.2. Nope. Maybe 2.2.1, nope, sorry.

Where the heck is push? Nobody knows. But it is an important feature.

As I wrote before (cheesy to quote myself, I know, but I am lazy):

The idea they explained in the keynote is that you can actually send only the notification, there is no process in background. Your application does not really wake up. You either hear a noise (custom sound), get the icon of your app to change with a number (icon badge) or see a text message (same as when an SMS arrives).

It is not perfect, there is big brother in the middle but I can live with it.

It is an important feature. When you lack multi-threading, it still allows you to do push email, IM, calendaring, social network stuff, VOIP and a lot more.

What's going on (options):

1. They panicked because they could not make it work
2. They decided to wait because the new OS will make this obsolete

I vote for both. I believe the new OS (maybe 3.0) will have multi-threading support (they have to, Palm has it). They will also have cut&paste (they have to, Palm has it). And more.

We'll see it one day. Just not before June 09, in my opinion.

Calling all Italian designers

As you might know, the Funambol R&D center is headquartered in Italy. We have developers everywhere on the planet, but the core comes from the land of fashion, haute couture, furniture, glasses and so on. The land of design. The Made-in-Italy.

I always say that Italian software ends up being good because of this. Software is creativity and Italians have it in their DNA. Pretty simple. Italian software designers are top notch.

That said, when you look at Funambol there is a component that is made in California: the GUI, the graphical elements, the look&feel. Strangely enough, we have designed the stuff here from day one, while it has been always engineered in Italy.

That bothers me a bit (although our designers here are top of the world). Sometimes, it feels like Apple and the iPod. Designed in California, made in Italy :-) It is a bit insane, looking at how many foreigners come to Milan to learn at Italian design schools...

I would like to change this and make Funambol a fully designed in Italy product (and web site). Made in Italy, all the way.

Therefore, I am calling all Italian designers to send me their portfolio. We are looking at freelancers and we'll go for a quick competition to see whom to work with. Our VP Product Management will be in Italy in a week or so and can meet the people that pass the first cut in person as well.

If you are interested in applying, please send an email to jobs at funambol.com. Below you find the job description.

We are looking for a talented designer who always has the user in mind and can build beautiful and functional user interfaces for software applications ranging from advanced browser-based applications to mobile client software.

Requirements:
- A proven track record of user interface and software interaction design for web-based applications, online services and other user-facing software applications on desktops or mobile handsets.
- A history of working closely with product management and engineering during all phases of design and production
- A passion for users and exceptional attention to detail

Deliverables:
- Detailed design of application/screen mockups in Photoshop or similar application including icon/graphics design to explore various possible design directions and look-and-feel options
- A functional prototype of the designed application implemented in HTML/CSS/JS for cross-browser use and testing of the software interaction
- Close collaboration with engineering to implement and integrate the designs/prototypes into an existing or new web/AJAX or client application framework
- Design and delivery of application icons in various formats and styles for client software running on desktops or mobile handsets
- Design and delivery of graphical elements for various client or web-based applications
- Design of various client software application screens and interactions

RIM's new reality is a nightmare to come

Today I was stunned by a report by Engadget, citing a WSJ article on the BlackBerry Storm.

As you might remember, I was not that positive about the device. I hold it in my hands for two minutes, I tried the new "soft" keyboard and gave up on it completely. Too hard too press, no visual feedback. Just a good idea turned into a bad product. Or a bad idea turned into the right thing?

Apparently, WSJ reports that the Storm did not fare that well. Good sales at the beginning, then flat. I am actually more interested in knowing the numbers of devices returned and exchanged for a Bold. I am ready to bet they are super-high.

In a word: the Storm has been shipped too early and with no real user testing (that's my opinion, of course).

What shocked me is the comment in the article:

Now, instead of pleading for mercy at the feet of disgruntled consumers, RIM co-CEO, Jim Balsillie, calls the post-launch scramble part of the "new reality" of making complex cellphones in large volumes.

If this is the "new reality" for RIM, then they are headed for disaster. A company that has always been known for reliable products. Not shiny, not cool, but reliable. Something you can count on, even if you are the President. Now it is turning to just building software (and hardware) quickly, with minimal user review. "We'll fix it later" attitude...

I think this is suicide for RIM. If the CEO says to his people "do not worry, ship it with a million bugs, we'll fix it later", you are guaranteed it is going to happen. It is not reality. It is going to be a nightmare.

You can compare this attitude with Steve Jobs maniacal precision. The iPhone came out of the gate as a great product. Few quirks in the distribution of the device in the shops (to increase the buzz) but a great product from the get-go. Improved quickly via firmware updates. Somehow, people value this...

What if you do not have a CEO that is a maniac? Well, there is open source. Peer pressure, bug reviews, a transparent way to ship software is the key to good software. And good software makes happy customers.

There is a reason why Google and Nokia chose open source vs. proprietary for Android and Symbian. It is not just cost. It is quality. Something that you get, even if you do not spend your precious time on it. The community will do it for you. They will keep you honest. They will give you tremendous feedback and set the bar right. You might slip a deadline (maybe) but the result will be an excellent product.

Good products, happy customers, great sales, big returns. It is that simple.

Barack keeps his BlackBerry

Watching Obama inauguration has been inspirational.

Here is a guy who is swearing in front of a gazillion people and he simply screws it up (ok, I know, it was not his fault, but... they had to re-do it again a day after... and it was not a long statement to remember, whatever Chief Justice says). Then he goes down the stairs and tries to shake hands with a marine who is saluting him (ooops, he was not ready).

I mean, it makes you feel you can screw up a little, even if you are the CEO. And life goes on. And people still believe you are going to change the world. Inspirational.

But as a CEO, you have to stood on some principles as well. You can't hope for bailout every day.

The most important principle: keep you mobile push email going (ok, ok, it is just for Barack and me, but now you can see the inspiration flowing).

He did not flip-flop on the issue: he fought hard and he kept his BlackBerry. He might give up nicotine addiction, but not push email addiction. How good a message is this for our market? Inspirational.

The BlackBerry Force One (what a gift to the Canadian brand, BTW) is going to be equipped with extra super duper security, including I guess someone who is going to look at it - just in case it drops while he is jogging.

I still would have preferred him to use an open source product, since he has been talking about OSS a lot (Scott McNealy of Sun has been tasked to provide him with a white paper on open source). I am told there are some very good mobile email open source products, where your communications do not have to go through Canada, and where applying the super duper security patch is a whiff (and you can see the source code)...

That would have been inspirational a bit too much.

I want an App Store too

There are two products topping every device manufacturer wish list:

1. App Store
2. MobileMe

The same for carriers, because they can't leave it to the device manufacturers. Or they will become a dumb pipe before the rest of the world will realize it...

I am not going to talk about MobileMe for now (although you know where to find it ;-), but I will focus on the App Store.

Everyone wants one. Everyone is announcing one. I might actually get one too.

First it was Apple with the App Store (congrats for being the first as usual, and thank you so much for that, we would not be here without you ;-)

Then it was Google with the Marketplace for Android, soon to accept paid applications.

Lately, Palm announced its App Catalog. Quite expected.

Now RIM is making public they have one too, called Application Storefront (they are definitely less creative than others, having just enlarged the name from Apple ;-) If you are a developer, you can actually submit your apps today.

The last one (yeah, right) to join the fray is Microsoft. But for that, it appears we need to wait until MWC in Barcelona. There, they are likely to announce the Sky services. You bet, the SkyMarket is their answer to the App Store. At least they came out with a new name. And, BTW, they will also have their MobileMe product, called SkyBox. I know, I said I did not want to talk about it, but...

In any case, having 100 app stores might turn out to be a nightmare... If you are a developer, you need to post your app on every one of those, and they are all slightly different. Then you have the app stores run by the carrier (e.g. T-Mobile). All requiring some money to post your app. You do the math and you are back to square zero. Maybe the app store is not the answer. Maybe the browser should be the main tool for app discovery. Maybe we do not need a third party between us and the user.

But we definitely need MobileMe :-))

The Mobile Geek's Sync Utopia

I found a post on a blog that I really liked today. It is from one of the people that are using Funambol. What makes me proud is that I know there are tons out there doing the same (BTW, this is a small marketing gem: we have over 12,000 Funambol live server right now. That's huge).

Anyway, Guy Cross writes:

Funambol helps me by syncing:

• notes I make on books between my PDA, netbook and desktop PC
• clips I take from websites or resources like Wikipedia between all my devices
• to-do items on my PDA that I enter as I think about them, letting me see them on my desktop/netbook when get I to my home/office (where I am more likely to be able to action them, but need a gentle reminder)
• email between all my devices, even my cellphone - which means I can use my cell's data plan if I am outside of a wifi area.

Having my contacts up to date on all of my devices really lets me use my commute to communicate and on whichever of my devices is most appropriate, if I am on a busy train I can use my PDA to email, but if I have more room my netbook is up to date and synced with all of my address books (in reality since starting to use Funambol I only have one address book!, The Funambol contacts list is as comprehensive as any PIM I have used). The setup was a complete no-brainer, just installing the appropriate program for each of my devices (cellphone, PDA) and an extension for Mozilla Thunderbird/Lightening, from there the setup was guided by simple wizard style helper programs, perfect for the non-techie geek that I am.

These are the things that make my day and convince me even more that open source is the way to go.

Palm is innovating again

As you might know, I have been a fan of Palm for years. Seeing the company disappearing in the background has been painful. The people that brought us the Palm Pilot and HotSync were just not innovating anymore. The company was dying.

Now they are back.

The Palm Pre and the webOS, announced at CES, are pure innovation. They managed to take the iPhone and improve on it, which is remarkable (many tried, nobody made it so far...).

Why I think this might be the comeback for Palm:

1. The device looks slick. I am not a fan of sliding keyboard, but this one seems ok. I am sure we will hear "an iPhone with a keyboard" quite often. And this is a real keyboard, not the suicide attempt of RIM with the Storm
2. The UI of the OS looks slick. The concept of cards, the gestures (I like the one where you throw away your application), the support for multi-touch. From the first look, it seems "an iPhone with copy and paste". Not a small feature. Look for Apple to finally add it, if the Pre has any quick success
3. The development environment seems to be the nirvana of developers. What I have been talking about for a while: a web development system (Ajax, HTML, Javascript, CSS) for local apps. Palm claims all their apps use the same system. If it is true, they might have solved the issue of how to attract developers to build applications for this platform. Developers will come. "An iPhone with an easy development environment". BTW, the OS underneath is Linux, which is just cool.
   
4. They have a transparent synching technology called Synergy. It is what MobileMe is to the iPhone or the Android Gmail integration. But it works. And not just for @me.com or @gmail.com accounts. From the people that brought us HotSync comes the future of syncing. Ok, a bit too much enthusiasm, maybe... But the engine Palm is using is the best of the best in the world (wink wink ;-) "An iPhone that syncs with the world".
   
5. The accessory to power the phone without wires is soo cool. "An iPhone without wires, not even to charge it". I love this one. If you looked behind my desk, you would know why... This is the future.

Bottom line: Palm is innovating. A lot. They are back. I am happy.

2009 and no news: Apple vs. Motorola

I am not that negative about 2009, compared to others. Obviously, I am an optimist, so I might be biased. Or maybe I am just lucky to be in a positive mood ;-)

However, 2009 started a bit slow for my taste.

I was not expecting anything from Apple, since Steve Jobs was not giving the keynote. With the bar so low, I was hoping for a surprise (see, I told you I am an optimist, it is just a matter of setting your expectation right...). Instead, Apple did not announce anything, just that it has been their last MacWorld. Sad.

I was not expecting that much from Motorola either, but for a company in panic mode I feel the phone made by recycled bottles might be not enough. It seems they were just trying hard to be featured on the news, any news, anything... Unfortunately, this is not exactly how you turn a company around...

The difference between Apple and Motorola is striking. Apple did not really announce anything, but nobody cares. They can afford to stay quiet and let the bad times pass. They are healthy as ever (even Steve Jobs seems to have found the cause of his illness), they have cash and they are selling products. On the other side, Motorola did not really announce anything, and still nobody cares. Unfortunately, not about the lack of announcements...

I am still optimistic for Motorola, but they have to rush this Android phone...